Markets
Why Altcoin Market Declines After Token Unlock
Altcoins face an early crypto winter, mainly due to major token unlocks in 2024.
According to Bloomberg, the project’s first investors seek to sell the received tokens quickly, wanting to obtain short-term profits. At the same time, they do not want to keep unlocked altcoins on their balance sheets for future growth.
Data from Token unlocks The platform, which tracks 138 projects, indicates that 120 are expected to unlock tokens in 2024. Analysts estimate that the total market value of this volume of assets is US$58 billion.
Edward Chin, co-founder of investment firm Parataxis Capital, believes massive sales of such assets are putting intense pressure on the altcoin market. At the same time, brokers often have to offer potential buyers early investor tokens at a discount of up to 40%.
“The market is strange at the moment as the many infrastructure projects that investors funded in the bear market are now approaching their token launches, but there are not many regular buyers of these tokens at high prices.”
Lex Sokolin, co-founder of Generative Ventures
How does unlocking affect tokens?
The timing and scale of token unlocks can significantly impact market dynamics. Unlocking too many tokens simultaneously can reduce buying interest and temporarily lower token prices.
Token unlock events can cause market fluctuations as investors react to the new token offering. Investors can adjust their positions based on the unlock schedule and the expected impact on token prices, resulting in price changes.
Which tokens collapsed after unlocking?
For example, the symbol of dYdX project, DYDX, fell 61% in the last three months. At the time of writing, the asset’s price was $1.4 and its market capitalization was $838 million.
Source: CoinMarketCap
A similar situation is observed on the Pyth Network (PITO) and Avalanche (AVAX) projects. In the same period, its tokens fell by 55% and 66%, respectively.
All three listed projects were unlocked in May 2024. General market volatility exacerbates the situation with altcoins. Of the 90+ most sizable crypto assets by market capitalization, only 12 have shown positive returns since mid-March 2024.
According to statistics, about 80 projects show negative dynamics in this indicator. At the same time, the price of 23 assets fell by more than 50%.
Crypto winter in the altcoin market
10xSearch Analysts note that the price of the 115 most prominent altcoins has fallen more than 50% since their 2024 peaks. This correction is mostly similar to declines seen in previous market cycles in 2017 and 2021. Without an influx of new funds and restoration of liquidity, the fall in altcoin prices may continue.
Source: 10xSearch
“Today, altcoins are in a brutal bear market. In 2024, 73% of these 115 coins peaked in March. We were correct in calling for Bitcoin to outperform everything else, especially Ethereum, but in early March the game changed.”
10xResearch
While altcoins are falling, the two main cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (Bitcoin) and Ethereum (ETH), have shown relative resilience. They are down 11% and 13%, respectively, from this year’s peaks.
“Surviving the altcoin bear market depends on one crucial factor: effective risk management. Token unlocks and unfavorable crypto liquidity indicators are the main catalysts for this altcoin crash.”
10xResearch
In May, analysts warned of a possible decline in altcoin prices due to the unlocking of a significant volume of tokens. Nearly $2 billion worth of unlocked tokens are expected to enter the market before July, which could lead to a cryptocurrency sell-off and a price crash.
According to experts, this situation is due to the actions of venture capital funds. In the first quarter of 2022, these funds invested $13 billion in altcoins. Under pressure from investors wanting to return their funds, venture funds are forced to sell their tokens. The situation is worsened by growing investor interest in artificial intelligence (AI).
Should traders wait for altcoin season?
The part of Bitcoin in the total capitalization of the entire crypto market, the volume of which is $2.4 trillion, is 54.6%. The so-called Bitcoin Dominance Index indicates the market cycle and investor sentiment, with smaller cryptocurrencies typically outperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum in growth rates.
Source: TradingView
As a rule, the share of the leading digital currency in the total capitalization of the entire crypto market grows during cyclical downturns in the industry. During a bullish market period, when many altcoins grow faster than Bitcoin, it decreases. Thus, the first cryptocurrency dominance index indicates the market cycle and investor sentiment.
Swissblock Analysts called the conditions for the start of the altcoin season. Experts believe that traders need to monitor the ETH/BTC price ratio, which is the price of Ethereum in Bitcoin equivalent. The growth of the ETH/BTC pair is traditionally considered a harbinger of an influx of capital into alternatives
Furthermore, technical analyst Titan of Crypto also expressed faith in the upcoming season in April.
According to him, the altcoin market is ready for significant growth. The analyst emphasized that the phase after BTC halving often becomes an inflection point for them. Technical charts suggest that altcoins will soon take center stage, foreshadowing a potentially profitable bull season.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials presented on this page are for educational purposes only.
Markets
Crypto Markets Rebound as Spot Bitcoin ETFs Attract Massive Inflows
This week saw $722 million worth of Bitcoin spot ETF inflows, including the largest daily inflow in a month.
Cryptocurrency markets rallied on Wednesday, driven by inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is up 3% over the past 24 hours to last change hands at $65,200, according to CoinGecko. Ethereum (ETH) is up 2% and is trading at $3,471. Solana (SUN) and Polkadot (POINT) increased by 4%.
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $422 million in daily inflows on Tuesday, the highest in the past 30 days, according to Far side data, . The all-time record for a single day was $1.05 billion on March 12.
Among Tuesday’s top contributors, BlackRock’s IBIT led with $260 million in inflows, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with $61 million. This week has already seen more than $722 million in inflows.
Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, Worldcoin (WLD) led with a 28% increase, followed by Helium (HNT) with 20% and Lido DAO (LDO) with 15%.
Worldcoin, a decentralized identity project led by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, announced is extending the lockups for early investors and team members. This means that tokens will be gradually released through 2029, instead of the original 2027 plan. Token unlocks are generally seen as a negative because they increase supply and early investors can sell their tokens for profit.
Meanwhile, XRP, the token of the XRP Ledger network, jumped 8% after the CME and CF benchmarks introduced new indices and reference rates for XRP.
U.S. stocks faced a downturn on Wednesday. The S&P 500 fell 1%, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average both fell 2%.
Markets
Altcoins on the cusp of a major breakout – WLD, AR, and INJ prices could surge by 20% in the coming days
Crypto markets appear to have been taken over by the bulls as major tokens have surged above their crucial resistance zone. Bitcoin surged above $65,000 while Ethereum was above $3,500, and XRP, which had remained passive for quite some time, surged over 40% in the past few days to hit $0.6. The uptrend has been captured in most altcoins, with Worldcoin (WLD), Arweave (AR), and Injective (INJ) leading the rally. Here’s what to expect for these tokens in the coming days.
Worldcoin (WLD) Price Analysis
O Worldcoin Price has been trading inside a descending wedge since it marked a new ATH near $12 in the final days of Q1 2024. The recent price action helped the price break out of the upper resistance of the wedge, breaking above the crucial resistance zone between $2.21 and $2.39. Market sentiments have changed, but technicals suggest that the bulls may remain passive for a while, which could offer some room for a bearish pullback.
The price broke out of the wedge with a significant increase in volume, but the current volume suggests that the bulls have taken a step back. Meanwhile, the RSI is about to reach the upper boundary, which could attract bearish forces. Additionally, the DMI has undergone a bullish crossover, but the decline in the ADX suggests that the rally may remain consolidated above the gains. Therefore, the WLD price is expected to maintain a horizontal consolidation between $3 and $3.3 and trigger a fresh rally to $4.4 during the next bullish rally.
Arweave (AR) Price Analysis
Arweave formed a strong base around $25, which helped the rally trigger a recovery during the bearish attack. Mt. Gox and German terror forced the price to fall below $20. However, the recent price action has brought the altcoin within the bullish range and raised expectations of maintaining a decent uptrend for a few more days.
AR price has hit one of the major resistances around $30 to $31.5, which could act as a strong base once overcome. The buying volume is slowly increasing, which could keep the bullish hopes for the rally high. Moreover, the supertrend has just flashed a buy signal, indicating a clean reversal of the trend. Therefore, AR price seems primed to maintain a healthy uptrend and rally above $40. However, if the bulls maintain a similar trend, making new highs above $50 may not be a tedious task for the bulls.
Price Analysis of Injective (INJ)
Injective price has been showing sharp strength since the beginning of the year and hence, the recent turnaround is expected to revive a good uptrend going forward. The bears engulfed the rally to a large extent, but the recent price action suggests that the bulls have regained their dominance. Therefore, INJ price is expected to maintain a strong uptrend with a bearish interference on the way down.
INJ price has surged above the lower support zone and has registered consecutive bullish candles. Although the volume is below the required levels, the OBV is maintaining a sharp uptrend. Furthermore, the Ichimoku cloud lead span B is heading towards the lead span A and a healthy crossover indicates the start of a new uptrend. However, INJ price may be out of the bears’ reach once it secures the resistance zone between $30.77 and $32.12, which seems to be on the horizon.
Markets
Ethereum at $3.5K, Exchange Supply Hits 34-Month High
Ethereum (ETH) supply on exchanges has hit a 34-month high as the asset’s price surpassed the $3,500 mark.
ETH has risen 2.3% over the past 24 hours and is trading at $3,490 at the time of writing. The second-largest cryptocurrency — with a market cap of $419 billion — briefly touched an intraday high of $3,517 earlier today.
ETH Price, Whale Activity, RSI, and Exchange Supply – July 17 | Source: Santiment
Ethereum’s daily trading volume also increased by 7.6% to reach $19.8 billion.
According to data provided by Santiment, the supply of Ethereum on exchanges has reached $19.52 million ETH. This level was last seen in September 2021, when the asset was trading around the same price.
On the other hand, data from the market intelligence platform shows that the number of whale transactions has fallen by 12% in the last day — falling from 8,730 to 7,629 unique transactions per day.
The move shows that the supply of Ethereum on exchanges has been increasing with small deposits rather than large transactions from whales.
Additionally, the ETH Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering at the 60-mark, per Santiment. The indicator shows that Ethereum is slightly overbought at this price point, but it may not be in a critical position due to its large market cap.
One of the main drivers of Ethereum price increase is ETH spot expectations ETFs in the US Investment products are scheduled to start trading on July 23rd.
Markets
Bits + Beeps: How to Play the ‘Trump Trade’ in Cryptocurrencies After the Assassination Attempt
Also, how much will the Fed cut rates (and when)? What will be the inflows into ETH ETFs? And what is the near future for Bitcoin?
Posted on July 17, 2024 at 12:00 PM EST.
Listen to the episode at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Capsules, Source, Podcast Addict, Pocket molds, Amazon Musicor on your favorite podcast platform.
In this episode of Bits + Bips, hosts James Seyffart, Alex Kruger and Joe McCann, joined by guest Jack Platts, dive into the market reaction to the recent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, analyzing how this event will influence the 2024 US presidential election and the cryptocurrency markets.
They also cover potential rate cuts: Could there be a cut in July? How big could the September rate cut be? Could the decision be influenced by the upcoming election?
They also give their predictions on what percentage of BTC ETF inflows the ETH ETFs will reach, and James talks about what he expects for Grayscale’s ETHE (hint: his outlook would be positive for ETH).
Finally, they delve into what’s next for Bitcoin as the German government runs out of BTC and Mt. Gox distributions begin. Just now?
Program Highlights:
- Whether Trump’s shooting decided the election and whether the event caused a “flight to safety”
- How election markets are becoming a place to watch election probabilities and whether cryptocurrencies “lean right”
- Whether rate cuts will occur in July or September and by how much they will cut: 25 bps or 50 bps
- How Joe sees the relationship between global liquidity cycles, rate cuts, and the potential rise of Bitcoin
- What are the new updates about Ethereum ETFs and their expected launch?
- Why Solana Hasn’t Performed Significantly Better Since Trump News
- What Market Breadth Indicates About the Current Market Rally and the Impact of Rates on Small Caps
- Everyone’s predictions on ETH ETF inflows and how much outflow we’ll see on Grayscale’s ETHE
- What’s Next for BTC After German Government Exits Bitcoin and Mt. Gox Giveaways Starting This Week
Hosts:
Guest:
- Jack PlattsCo-Founder and Managing Partner of Hypersphere Ventures
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