Markets
Long-term stability and retention insights
Bitcoin (BTC) price has been trading consistently in the $67,000 and $68,000 range for several days. In this analysis, BeInCrypto aims to understand Bitcoin’s price action.
Furthermore, we observed a drop volatility, which can be attributed to several factors. To provide a comprehensive analysis, we will explore who is buying and selling Bitcoin.
Examining Bitcoin Activity and Vault Rates
The chart below illustrates Bitcoin’s activity rate and bounce rate over time, along with its price in US dollars. Here are the key observations from the chart:
Activity rate (shown in red):
The Activity Rate shows how much Bitcoin is actively traded or moved by usersindicating how often people use or transfer their BTC.
Notable spikes and dips indicate periods of rising and falling activity among Bitcoin holders. Significant fluctuations may be observed, especially around major price movements. We saw a fascinating drop in the activity rate, from 9% to -3%. This decrease in activity may indicate a tendency towards long-term Bitcoin ownership.
Skip rate (shown in green):
Vault Rate shows how many Bitcoin users are switching to long-term storage, keeping it safe for the future (Vault Supply represents the percentage of Bitcoin that has been held or has never been sold since its first acquisition).
Positive vault rates suggest investors are moving more BTC into long-term storage. The chart shows periods where the bounce rate increases, potentially indicating holders’ confidence in the future value of the asset.
See more information: Who owns the most Bitcoin in 2024?
Bitcoin: Vaults and activity fees. Source: Glassnode
The decline in activity and the increase in the vault could explain the decreasing trend in volatility.
Understanding the UTXO Value Distribution Monitor
The UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) Value Distribution Monitor analyzes BTC transactions based on the value of BTC held in different wallets. Let’s summarize in simple terms and explain what this indicator tells us.
What is UTXO?
UTXO means Unspent transaction output. Refers to the amount of Bitcoin received after a transaction that can be used in future transactions. In essence, UTXOs define where each blockchain transaction begins and ends.
What does the UTXO value distribution monitor show?
The colored bars represent daily changes in the amount of BTC held at different UTXO value bands:
- Red Bars: Changes to UTXOs with more than 10,000 BTC.
- Violet Bars: Changes to UTXOs holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC.
What does this indicator tell us?
The UTXO Value Distribution Monitor helps us understand the behavior of BTC holders, from small investors to large whales (very large holders). Here’s what it can tell us:
Bitcoin: UTXO Value Distribution Monitor. Source: CriptoQuant
Accumulation and Distribution:
Positive changes mean more BTC stays at this value band. For example, if the red bars (10,000+ BTC) are positive, large holders accumulate more BTC.
Negative changes indicate that BTC leaves this value range. Therefore, if the blue bars (1,000 – 10,000 BTC) are negative, medium-sized holders sell their BTC.
Market Sentiment:
If large holders (more than 10,000 BTC) accumulate, it suggests they have long-term confidence in the value of Bitcoin.
If mid-sized holders (1,000 – 10,000 BTC) are selling, they can take profits or reallocate their assets.
Market Dynamics:
The interaction between different value ranges can indicate broader market trends. For example, if we see 1,000 – 10,000 BTC holders selling and over 10,000 BTC holders buying, this suggests that the market Big players are confident in the future of Bitcoin at current prices, even if small players are less certain.
See more information: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030
In summary, Bitcoin’s price stability in the $67,000 to $68,000 range, coupled with declining volatility, suggests a maturing market. The drop in the activity rate and the increase in the jump rate indicate a shift to long-term participationreflecting increased confidence among major holders.
The UTXO Value Distribution Monitor further supports this, showing large holders accumulating BTC while mid-sized holders sell. These trends point to a market where major players are optimistic about the future of Bitcoin, reinforcing its potential as a long-term investment.
Disclaimer
In line with the Confidence Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate and unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and conditions, Privacy PolicyIt is Disclaimers have been updated.
Markets
Crypto Markets Rebound as Spot Bitcoin ETFs Attract Massive Inflows
This week saw $722 million worth of Bitcoin spot ETF inflows, including the largest daily inflow in a month.
Cryptocurrency markets rallied on Wednesday, driven by inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is up 3% over the past 24 hours to last change hands at $65,200, according to CoinGecko. Ethereum (ETH) is up 2% and is trading at $3,471. Solana (SUN) and Polkadot (POINT) increased by 4%.
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $422 million in daily inflows on Tuesday, the highest in the past 30 days, according to Far side data, . The all-time record for a single day was $1.05 billion on March 12.
Among Tuesday’s top contributors, BlackRock’s IBIT led with $260 million in inflows, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with $61 million. This week has already seen more than $722 million in inflows.
Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, Worldcoin (WLD) led with a 28% increase, followed by Helium (HNT) with 20% and Lido DAO (LDO) with 15%.
Worldcoin, a decentralized identity project led by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, announced is extending the lockups for early investors and team members. This means that tokens will be gradually released through 2029, instead of the original 2027 plan. Token unlocks are generally seen as a negative because they increase supply and early investors can sell their tokens for profit.
Meanwhile, XRP, the token of the XRP Ledger network, jumped 8% after the CME and CF benchmarks introduced new indices and reference rates for XRP.
U.S. stocks faced a downturn on Wednesday. The S&P 500 fell 1%, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average both fell 2%.
Markets
Altcoins on the cusp of a major breakout – WLD, AR, and INJ prices could surge by 20% in the coming days
Crypto markets appear to have been taken over by the bulls as major tokens have surged above their crucial resistance zone. Bitcoin surged above $65,000 while Ethereum was above $3,500, and XRP, which had remained passive for quite some time, surged over 40% in the past few days to hit $0.6. The uptrend has been captured in most altcoins, with Worldcoin (WLD), Arweave (AR), and Injective (INJ) leading the rally. Here’s what to expect for these tokens in the coming days.
Worldcoin (WLD) Price Analysis
O Worldcoin Price has been trading inside a descending wedge since it marked a new ATH near $12 in the final days of Q1 2024. The recent price action helped the price break out of the upper resistance of the wedge, breaking above the crucial resistance zone between $2.21 and $2.39. Market sentiments have changed, but technicals suggest that the bulls may remain passive for a while, which could offer some room for a bearish pullback.
The price broke out of the wedge with a significant increase in volume, but the current volume suggests that the bulls have taken a step back. Meanwhile, the RSI is about to reach the upper boundary, which could attract bearish forces. Additionally, the DMI has undergone a bullish crossover, but the decline in the ADX suggests that the rally may remain consolidated above the gains. Therefore, the WLD price is expected to maintain a horizontal consolidation between $3 and $3.3 and trigger a fresh rally to $4.4 during the next bullish rally.
Arweave (AR) Price Analysis
Arweave formed a strong base around $25, which helped the rally trigger a recovery during the bearish attack. Mt. Gox and German terror forced the price to fall below $20. However, the recent price action has brought the altcoin within the bullish range and raised expectations of maintaining a decent uptrend for a few more days.
AR price has hit one of the major resistances around $30 to $31.5, which could act as a strong base once overcome. The buying volume is slowly increasing, which could keep the bullish hopes for the rally high. Moreover, the supertrend has just flashed a buy signal, indicating a clean reversal of the trend. Therefore, AR price seems primed to maintain a healthy uptrend and rally above $40. However, if the bulls maintain a similar trend, making new highs above $50 may not be a tedious task for the bulls.
Price Analysis of Injective (INJ)
Injective price has been showing sharp strength since the beginning of the year and hence, the recent turnaround is expected to revive a good uptrend going forward. The bears engulfed the rally to a large extent, but the recent price action suggests that the bulls have regained their dominance. Therefore, INJ price is expected to maintain a strong uptrend with a bearish interference on the way down.
INJ price has surged above the lower support zone and has registered consecutive bullish candles. Although the volume is below the required levels, the OBV is maintaining a sharp uptrend. Furthermore, the Ichimoku cloud lead span B is heading towards the lead span A and a healthy crossover indicates the start of a new uptrend. However, INJ price may be out of the bears’ reach once it secures the resistance zone between $30.77 and $32.12, which seems to be on the horizon.
Markets
Ethereum at $3.5K, Exchange Supply Hits 34-Month High
Ethereum (ETH) supply on exchanges has hit a 34-month high as the asset’s price surpassed the $3,500 mark.
ETH has risen 2.3% over the past 24 hours and is trading at $3,490 at the time of writing. The second-largest cryptocurrency — with a market cap of $419 billion — briefly touched an intraday high of $3,517 earlier today.
ETH Price, Whale Activity, RSI, and Exchange Supply – July 17 | Source: Santiment
Ethereum’s daily trading volume also increased by 7.6% to reach $19.8 billion.
According to data provided by Santiment, the supply of Ethereum on exchanges has reached $19.52 million ETH. This level was last seen in September 2021, when the asset was trading around the same price.
On the other hand, data from the market intelligence platform shows that the number of whale transactions has fallen by 12% in the last day — falling from 8,730 to 7,629 unique transactions per day.
The move shows that the supply of Ethereum on exchanges has been increasing with small deposits rather than large transactions from whales.
Additionally, the ETH Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering at the 60-mark, per Santiment. The indicator shows that Ethereum is slightly overbought at this price point, but it may not be in a critical position due to its large market cap.
One of the main drivers of Ethereum price increase is ETH spot expectations ETFs in the US Investment products are scheduled to start trading on July 23rd.
Markets
Bits + Beeps: How to Play the ‘Trump Trade’ in Cryptocurrencies After the Assassination Attempt
Also, how much will the Fed cut rates (and when)? What will be the inflows into ETH ETFs? And what is the near future for Bitcoin?
Posted on July 17, 2024 at 12:00 PM EST.
Listen to the episode at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Capsules, Source, Podcast Addict, Pocket molds, Amazon Musicor on your favorite podcast platform.
In this episode of Bits + Bips, hosts James Seyffart, Alex Kruger and Joe McCann, joined by guest Jack Platts, dive into the market reaction to the recent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, analyzing how this event will influence the 2024 US presidential election and the cryptocurrency markets.
They also cover potential rate cuts: Could there be a cut in July? How big could the September rate cut be? Could the decision be influenced by the upcoming election?
They also give their predictions on what percentage of BTC ETF inflows the ETH ETFs will reach, and James talks about what he expects for Grayscale’s ETHE (hint: his outlook would be positive for ETH).
Finally, they delve into what’s next for Bitcoin as the German government runs out of BTC and Mt. Gox distributions begin. Just now?
Program Highlights:
- Whether Trump’s shooting decided the election and whether the event caused a “flight to safety”
- How election markets are becoming a place to watch election probabilities and whether cryptocurrencies “lean right”
- Whether rate cuts will occur in July or September and by how much they will cut: 25 bps or 50 bps
- How Joe sees the relationship between global liquidity cycles, rate cuts, and the potential rise of Bitcoin
- What are the new updates about Ethereum ETFs and their expected launch?
- Why Solana Hasn’t Performed Significantly Better Since Trump News
- What Market Breadth Indicates About the Current Market Rally and the Impact of Rates on Small Caps
- Everyone’s predictions on ETH ETF inflows and how much outflow we’ll see on Grayscale’s ETHE
- What’s Next for BTC After German Government Exits Bitcoin and Mt. Gox Giveaways Starting This Week
Hosts:
Guest:
- Jack PlattsCo-Founder and Managing Partner of Hypersphere Ventures
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