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Altcoin Season Coming? Decoding Market Trends and Predictions

FinCrypt Staff

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Altcoin season ahead? Decoding the market trends and predictions

Are current market conditions, including Ethereum spot ETFs and Bitcoin volatility, pointing to an imminent altcoin season? Read on.

In recent weeks, the cryptocurrency market has undergone critical changes, keeping everyone on edge. The turmoil began when the now-defunct Mt. Gox exchange started paying off their creditors, causing a sharp drop in Bitcoin (BTC) prices and triggering widespread panic, fueling speculation that the bull run may be over.

Adding to the uncertainty, the German government initiated a large-scale liquidation of its cryptocurrency holdings, causing BTC prices to fall further to around $53,700 on July 5.

Despite these setbacks, Bitcoin has since climbed back to the $58,000 mark as the market absorbs the shocks of the Mt. Gox payments and the German liquidation.

However, the real game-changer came unexpectedly with a dramatic incident involving former US President Donald Trump. Known for his pro-crypto stance, Trump was outlet in the right ear during a political rally.

Following the attack, speculation surrounding Trump’s possible political return and its positive implications for the cryptocurrency market acted as a catalyst.

As a result, Bitcoin’s price skyrocketed from $58,000 to over $63,000 on July 14, briefly reaching $65,000 on July 16 before settling at $64,937 at the time of writing.

BTC 1-week price chart | Source: TradingView

As if the market wasn’t volatile enough, another big event is on the horizon: Ethereum approval is in sight (ETH) ETFs.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has granted preliminary approval to at least three of eight asset managers seeking to launch spot ETH ETFs. Final approval is contingent on the submission of their S-1 documents to regulators by the end of this week.

Approved asset managers, including heavyweights such as BlackRock, VanEck and Franklin Templeton, are expected to receive the green light from the SEC on July 22, with trading in these new products scheduled to begin the following day, July 23.

With these events sending ripples through the cryptocurrency market, the big question remains: what does this mean for altcoins? Are we on the verge of an altcoin season, or will BTC and ETH continue to dominate?

Let’s dig deeper into the data and market sentiment to find out if altcoin season is really upon us.

Altcoin dominance is taking a hit

The altcoin market has been going through a volatile phase lately, and understanding what’s going on requires analyzing some important data.

First, let’s talk about Bitcoin. domain. Since November 2022, BTC dominance has been strengthening. At that time, Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market was around 40%. It then steadily rose and reached over 56% in April 2024. Since then, it has fluctuated between 54% and 56%, peaking at almost 55% on July 16.

Altcoin Season in Sight? Decoding Market Trends and Predictions - 2BTC Long-Term Dominance Chart | Source: TradingView

On the other hand, the dominance of altcoins (excluding the top 10 coins by market cap) has followed a different pattern. It was high at around 19.3% in January 2022 but then dropped to 8.22% in June 2023. There was a recovery to 13.4% in March 2024, but after Bitcoin reached its all-time high, altcoin dominance dropped again to around 10.27% on July 16.

Altcoin Season in Sight? Decoding Market Trends and Predictions - 3Altcoin long-term dominance chart | Source: TradingView

Ethereum has been the main driver behind any rise in altcoin dominance. When ETH prices rose, altcoin dominance followed, but other altcoins did not see the same level of interest or investment.

We can see this dynamic reflected in the Altcoin Season Index, which measures the performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin. Typically, an Altcoin Season is considered active when more than 75% of the top 50 altcoins, excluding stablecoins, outperform BTC.

In October 2023, the crypto market turned bullish, and altcoins gained momentum. The index rose from 16 to a high of 84 in January 2024, suggesting that an altcoin season was beginning.

Altcoin Season in Sight? Decoding Market Trends and Predictions - 4Altcoin Season Index | Source: Blockchaincenter.net

However, the momentum from BTC spot ETFs pushed altcoins aside, and the index fell to 16 in June 2024. Recently, as BTC lost steam, the altcoin market recovered, and the index rose to 46, marking the fastest increase since January.

But Mt. Gox refunds and German liquidation fears quickly sent the market tumbling again, and the index fell to 33 on July 16.

Ethereum played a major role in these movements. Data shows that whenever Ethereum prices rose, the Altcoin Season Index also rose, indicating that Ethereum is a key driver for the entire altcoin market.

For a true altcoin season to begin, this index needs to stay above 75 consistently for several weeks to months. Until that happens, Bitcoin will likely continue to dominate, with Ethereum playing a key support role.

Is altcoin season coming?

Much of the speculation about altcoins revolves around future events and historical patterns observed in the cryptocurrency market.

According to cryptocurrency analyst Wise Advice, the timing of altcoin season usually aligns with Bitcoin halving events. Historically, after each Bitcoin halving, which reduces the block reward for mining new bitcoins, the price of Bitcoin tends to reach new all-time highs (ATH) around 1 to 1.5 years later.

This rise in Bitcoin’s price is followed by a sharp rise in Ethereum and other altcoins. For example, during the third halving bull run in November 2021, Bitcoin hit its ATH, and shortly after, Ethereum peaked at $4,800.

Similar patterns have been observed in previous halving events, where altcoins like Solana (SUN), Polka dot (POINT) and Avalanche (AVAX) also hit their ATHs after Bitcoin’s rally.

The underlying mechanism behind this pattern is the flow of money into the market. Initially, investors flock to Bitcoin, driving up its price. As Bitcoin investors profit, they often reinvest in Ethereum and other altcoins. Due to the smaller market caps of these altcoins, even a relatively small influx of capital can cause substantial price increases.

This investment cycle from Bitcoin to Ethereum and then to smaller altcoins leads to a temporary dip in Bitcoin dominance, paving the way for altcoin rallies and eventually altcoin season.

Meanwhile, Glassnode co-founder Yann Allemann highlighted a recent market rotation in which riskier equity assets outperformed more stable ones, a sign that could indicate a similar shift in the cryptocurrency market.

Comparing it to a similar event in November 2020, it suggests that we could see a major rally in altcoins if this rotation continues. In 2020, such a shift led to a 400% increase in altcoin values ​​over the following four months.

While these predictions paint a promising picture, it is essential to approach them with caution. The market is inherently volatile, and while there are opportunities for gains, they come with risks that should not be ignored.

Always do your research, stay informed, and avoid making decisions based solely on hype.

Disclosure: This article does not constitute investment advice. The content and materials presented on this page are for educational purposes only.



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We are the editorial team of FinCrypt, where seriousness meets clarity in cryptocurrency analysis. With a robust team of finance and blockchain technology experts, we are dedicated to meticulously exploring complex crypto markets with detailed assessments and an unbiased approach. Our mission is to democratize access to knowledge of emerging financial technologies, ensuring they are understandable and accessible to all. In every article on FinCrypt, we strive to provide content that not only educates, but also empowers our readers, facilitating their integration into the financial digital age.

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Markets

Crypto Markets Rebound as Spot Bitcoin ETFs Attract Massive Inflows

FinCrypt Staff

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Crypto Markets Rebound Ahead of Early Ethereum ETF Approval

This week saw $722 million worth of Bitcoin spot ETF inflows, including the largest daily inflow in a month.

Cryptocurrency markets rallied on Wednesday, driven by inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is up 3% over the past 24 hours to last change hands at $65,200, according to CoinGecko. Ethereum (ETH) is up 2% and is trading at $3,471. Solana (SUN) and Polkadot (POINT) increased by 4%.

Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $422 million in daily inflows on Tuesday, the highest in the past 30 days, according to Far side data, . The all-time record for a single day was $1.05 billion on March 12.

Among Tuesday’s top contributors, BlackRock’s IBIT led with $260 million in inflows, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with $61 million. This week has already seen more than $722 million in inflows.

Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, Worldcoin (WLD) led with a 28% increase, followed by Helium (HNT) with 20% and Lido DAO (LDO) with 15%.

Worldcoin, a decentralized identity project led by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, announced is extending the lockups for early investors and team members. This means that tokens will be gradually released through 2029, instead of the original 2027 plan. Token unlocks are generally seen as a negative because they increase supply and early investors can sell their tokens for profit.

Meanwhile, XRP, the token of the XRP Ledger network, jumped 8% after the CME and CF benchmarks introduced new indices and reference rates for XRP.

U.S. stocks faced a downturn on Wednesday. The S&P 500 fell 1%, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average both fell 2%.

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Altcoins on the cusp of a major breakout – WLD, AR, and INJ prices could surge by 20% in the coming days

FinCrypt Staff

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Altcoins on the cusp of a major breakout – WLD, AR, and INJ prices could surge by 20% in the coming days

Crypto markets appear to have been taken over by the bulls as major tokens have surged above their crucial resistance zone. Bitcoin surged above $65,000 while Ethereum was above $3,500, and XRP, which had remained passive for quite some time, surged over 40% in the past few days to hit $0.6. The uptrend has been captured in most altcoins, with Worldcoin (WLD), Arweave (AR), and Injective (INJ) leading the rally. Here’s what to expect for these tokens in the coming days.

Worldcoin (WLD) Price Analysis

O Worldcoin Price has been trading inside a descending wedge since it marked a new ATH near $12 in the final days of Q1 2024. The recent price action helped the price break out of the upper resistance of the wedge, breaking above the crucial resistance zone between $2.21 and $2.39. Market sentiments have changed, but technicals suggest that the bulls may remain passive for a while, which could offer some room for a bearish pullback.

The price broke out of the wedge with a significant increase in volume, but the current volume suggests that the bulls have taken a step back. Meanwhile, the RSI is about to reach the upper boundary, which could attract bearish forces. Additionally, the DMI has undergone a bullish crossover, but the decline in the ADX suggests that the rally may remain consolidated above the gains. Therefore, the WLD price is expected to maintain a horizontal consolidation between $3 and $3.3 and trigger a fresh rally to $4.4 during the next bullish rally.

Arweave (AR) Price Analysis

Arweave formed a strong base around $25, which helped the rally trigger a recovery during the bearish attack. Mt. Gox and German terror forced the price to fall below $20. However, the recent price action has brought the altcoin within the bullish range and raised expectations of maintaining a decent uptrend for a few more days.

AR price has hit one of the major resistances around $30 to $31.5, which could act as a strong base once overcome. The buying volume is slowly increasing, which could keep the bullish hopes for the rally high. Moreover, the supertrend has just flashed a buy signal, indicating a clean reversal of the trend. Therefore, AR price seems primed to maintain a healthy uptrend and rally above $40. However, if the bulls maintain a similar trend, making new highs above $50 may not be a tedious task for the bulls.

Price Analysis of Injective (INJ)

Injective price has been showing sharp strength since the beginning of the year and hence, the recent turnaround is expected to revive a good uptrend going forward. The bears engulfed the rally to a large extent, but the recent price action suggests that the bulls have regained their dominance. Therefore, INJ price is expected to maintain a strong uptrend with a bearish interference on the way down.

INJ price has surged above the lower support zone and has registered consecutive bullish candles. Although the volume is below the required levels, the OBV is maintaining a sharp uptrend. Furthermore, the Ichimoku cloud lead span B is heading towards the lead span A and a healthy crossover indicates the start of a new uptrend. However, INJ price may be out of the bears’ reach once it secures the resistance zone between $30.77 and $32.12, which seems to be on the horizon.

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Ethereum at $3.5K, Exchange Supply Hits 34-Month High

FinCrypt Staff

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Ethereum at $3.5K, Exchange Supply Hits 34-Month High

Ethereum (ETH) supply on exchanges has hit a 34-month high as the asset’s price surpassed the $3,500 mark.

ETH has risen 2.3% over the past 24 hours and is trading at $3,490 at the time of writing. The second-largest cryptocurrency — with a market cap of $419 billion — briefly touched an intraday high of $3,517 earlier today.

ETH Price, Whale Activity, RSI, and Exchange Supply – July 17 | Source: Santiment

Ethereum’s daily trading volume also increased by 7.6% to reach $19.8 billion.

According to data provided by Santiment, the supply of Ethereum on exchanges has reached $19.52 million ETH. This level was last seen in September 2021, when the asset was trading around the same price.

On the other hand, data from the market intelligence platform shows that the number of whale transactions has fallen by 12% in the last day — falling from 8,730 to 7,629 unique transactions per day.

The move shows that the supply of Ethereum on exchanges has been increasing with small deposits rather than large transactions from whales.

Additionally, the ETH Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering at the 60-mark, per Santiment. The indicator shows that Ethereum is slightly overbought at this price point, but it may not be in a critical position due to its large market cap.

One of the main drivers of Ethereum price increase is ETH spot expectations ETFs in the US Investment products are scheduled to start trading on July 23rd.

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Bits + Beeps: How to Play the ‘Trump Trade’ in Cryptocurrencies After the Assassination Attempt

FinCrypt Staff

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Bits + Bips: How to Play the ‘Trump Trade’ in Crypto After the Assassination Attempt

Also, how much will the Fed cut rates (and when)? What will be the inflows into ETH ETFs? And what is the near future for Bitcoin?

Posted on July 17, 2024 at 12:00 PM EST.

Listen to the episode at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Capsules, Source, Podcast Addict, Pocket molds, Amazon Musicor on your favorite podcast platform.

In this episode of Bits + Bips, hosts James Seyffart, Alex Kruger and Joe McCann, joined by guest Jack Platts, dive into the market reaction to the recent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, analyzing how this event will influence the 2024 US presidential election and the cryptocurrency markets.

They also cover potential rate cuts: Could there be a cut in July? How big could the September rate cut be? Could the decision be influenced by the upcoming election?

They also give their predictions on what percentage of BTC ETF inflows the ETH ETFs will reach, and James talks about what he expects for Grayscale’s ETHE (hint: his outlook would be positive for ETH).

Finally, they delve into what’s next for Bitcoin as the German government runs out of BTC and Mt. Gox distributions begin. Just now?

Program Highlights:

  • Whether Trump’s shooting decided the election and whether the event caused a “flight to safety”
  • How election markets are becoming a place to watch election probabilities and whether cryptocurrencies “lean right”
  • Whether rate cuts will occur in July or September and by how much they will cut: 25 bps or 50 bps
  • How Joe sees the relationship between global liquidity cycles, rate cuts, and the potential rise of Bitcoin
  • What are the new updates about Ethereum ETFs and their expected launch?
  • Why Solana Hasn’t Performed Significantly Better Since Trump News
  • What Market Breadth Indicates About the Current Market Rally and the Impact of Rates on Small Caps
  • Everyone’s predictions on ETH ETF inflows and how much outflow we’ll see on Grayscale’s ETHE
  • What’s Next for BTC After German Government Exits Bitcoin and Mt. Gox Giveaways Starting This Week

Hosts:

Guest:

  • Jack PlattsCo-Founder and Managing Partner of Hypersphere Ventures

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