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Bitcoin holders resume purchases after market sell-off

FinCrypt Staff

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Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Are Buying Again After Sell-Off

The basic laws of supply and demand determine the price action of any asset, including Bitcoin. When supply exceeds demand, the asset’s price tends to decrease. On the other hand, when demand exceeds supply, the price generally rises.

These same principles apply to cryptocurrencies, and on-chain metrics can provide valuable insights into the behavior of Bitcoin holders.

The impact of increased profit taking

When analyzing a long-term Bitcoin bull market, the price movement typically shows a significant increase. volatility, mixed with periods of corrections and consolidation. Most investors know that financial markets do not rise consistently, leading to a dynamic interplay between supply and demand, resulting in periodic corrections.

This trend is evident when looking at the realized limit and realized profits of Bitcoin.

  • Limit realized: This adds up the value of all BTC based on the last moving price, giving a clearer picture of the money actually invested in Bitcoin.
  • Profits realized: This refers to the actual gains that BTC holders made when they sold their Bitcoins for more than they paid for.

As Bitcoin reached a new all-time high From over $73,000 in mid-March, its Realized Cap also increased, suggesting that most long-term holders were profitable. Consequently, some exited their positions, resulting in a significant increase in realized profits.

Bitcoin limit and realized profits. Source: Glassnode

The growing supply of BTC in the market exceeded demand levels, leading to a corrective phase that saw Bitcoin price drops below $57,000. This drop has placed Bitcoin below its short-term holder realized price, creating a sense of fear in the market as short-term holders are more likely to sell based on price volatility.

  • Realized Price: The average price at which all BTC was last purchased. It’s like finding out the average cost everyone paid for their BTC.
  • Price Realized by the Short-Term Holder: The average price investors paid for the BTC they traded in the last 155 days. These BTC are the ones that are most likely to be spent or sold soon.
  • Price realized by the long-term holder: The average price investors paid for BTC they haven’t moved in more than 155 days. These BTC are less likely to be spent or sold soon.

The price realized by the short-term holder, which is currently $60,500, served as the accumulation point despite investor fears. In fact, long-term holders felt comfortable adding more BTC to their positions at this level after taking profits in March.

Bitcoin On-Chain Cost BaseOn-chain Bitcoin cost basis. Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin’s long-term holder’s net position change provides insight into this behavior. After going through an extended distribution period, long-term holders began to accumulate again, having accumulated over 70,000 BTC since the beginning of May.

  • Change in the long-term holder’s net position: It shows how the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term investors increases or decreases over time.

Based on the simple laws of supply and demand, as the demand for Bitcoin begins to exceed the available supply of BTC in the market, the odds of Bitcoin resuming its upward trajectory increase.

Change in Bitcoin holder's net positionChange in the net position of the Bitcoin holder. Source: Glassnode

Observing the balance of Bitcoin on exchanges can corroborate this supply and demand dynamic.

  • Balance on Exchanges: Refers to the total amount of Bitcoins held in cryptocurrency exchange wallets.

Since the beginning of May, more than 30,000 BTC have been transferred to private cryptocurrency wallets for long-term holding, showing confidence among holders in the future value of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Balance on ExchangesBitcoin balance on exchanges. Source: Glassnode

While evaluating the future price action of any asset can be challenging, several on-chain metrics can suggest potential prices that investors should pay attention to. One such metric is the MVRV Extreme Deviation Price Bands, which determine whether Bitcoin’s price is unusually high or low based on its historical averages.

  • MVRV: It stands for Market Value to Realized Value. Market value is the current price of Bitcoin times the number of BTC in circulation, while realized value is the average price at which all BTC was last purchased.
  • Price ranges: These bands show the upper and lower limits of Bitcoin’s price based on its historical MVRV values ​​to help identify when Bitcoin is extremely overvalued or undervalued based on historical price data.

Bitcoin recently returned above +0.5σ price band, which currently stands at $64,600. Historically, such a rise has led Bitcoin to test the 1.0σ price range, supported by increased demand. That price range is currently around $77,000.

See more information: Bitcoin Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

Bitcoin Balance on ExchangesBitcoin balance on exchanges. Source: Glassnode

Summary and conclusions

The basic laws of supply and demand dictate Bitcoin’s price movements. In fact, prices fall when supply exceeds demand and rise when demand exceeds supply. On-chain metrics offer valuable insights into these dynamics, allowing analysts to understand the behavior of Bitcoin holders.

Recent data reveals a price drop below $57,000 as supply increased. However, long-term holders have shown confidence by accumulating over 70,000 BTC since the beginning of May. This trend suggests resilience in the market despite short-term volatility.

Key metrics such as Realized Cap and Realized Profits illustrate that many long-term holders were profitable at Bitcoin’s recent all-time high, leading to a wave of selling and subsequent price corrections. However, accumulation by long-term holders at lower prices indicates a positive outlook for Bitcoin’s future value.

See more information: How to buy Bitcoin (BTC) and everything you need to know

Overall, these on-chain metrics help identify shifts in supply and demand, providing a framework for understanding Bitcoin price action and investor behavior and indicating potential upward trends as demand begins to outstrip supply.

Disclaimer

In line with the Confidence Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate and unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and conditions, Privacy PolicyIt is Disclaimers have been updated.

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We are the editorial team of FinCrypt, where seriousness meets clarity in cryptocurrency analysis. With a robust team of finance and blockchain technology experts, we are dedicated to meticulously exploring complex crypto markets with detailed assessments and an unbiased approach. Our mission is to democratize access to knowledge of emerging financial technologies, ensuring they are understandable and accessible to all. In every article on FinCrypt, we strive to provide content that not only educates, but also empowers our readers, facilitating their integration into the financial digital age.

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Markets

Crypto Markets Rebound as Spot Bitcoin ETFs Attract Massive Inflows

FinCrypt Staff

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Crypto Markets Rebound Ahead of Early Ethereum ETF Approval

This week saw $722 million worth of Bitcoin spot ETF inflows, including the largest daily inflow in a month.

Cryptocurrency markets rallied on Wednesday, driven by inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is up 3% over the past 24 hours to last change hands at $65,200, according to CoinGecko. Ethereum (ETH) is up 2% and is trading at $3,471. Solana (SUN) and Polkadot (POINT) increased by 4%.

Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $422 million in daily inflows on Tuesday, the highest in the past 30 days, according to Far side data, . The all-time record for a single day was $1.05 billion on March 12.

Among Tuesday’s top contributors, BlackRock’s IBIT led with $260 million in inflows, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with $61 million. This week has already seen more than $722 million in inflows.

Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, Worldcoin (WLD) led with a 28% increase, followed by Helium (HNT) with 20% and Lido DAO (LDO) with 15%.

Worldcoin, a decentralized identity project led by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, announced is extending the lockups for early investors and team members. This means that tokens will be gradually released through 2029, instead of the original 2027 plan. Token unlocks are generally seen as a negative because they increase supply and early investors can sell their tokens for profit.

Meanwhile, XRP, the token of the XRP Ledger network, jumped 8% after the CME and CF benchmarks introduced new indices and reference rates for XRP.

U.S. stocks faced a downturn on Wednesday. The S&P 500 fell 1%, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average both fell 2%.

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Markets

Altcoins on the cusp of a major breakout – WLD, AR, and INJ prices could surge by 20% in the coming days

FinCrypt Staff

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Altcoins on the cusp of a major breakout – WLD, AR, and INJ prices could surge by 20% in the coming days

Crypto markets appear to have been taken over by the bulls as major tokens have surged above their crucial resistance zone. Bitcoin surged above $65,000 while Ethereum was above $3,500, and XRP, which had remained passive for quite some time, surged over 40% in the past few days to hit $0.6. The uptrend has been captured in most altcoins, with Worldcoin (WLD), Arweave (AR), and Injective (INJ) leading the rally. Here’s what to expect for these tokens in the coming days.

Worldcoin (WLD) Price Analysis

O Worldcoin Price has been trading inside a descending wedge since it marked a new ATH near $12 in the final days of Q1 2024. The recent price action helped the price break out of the upper resistance of the wedge, breaking above the crucial resistance zone between $2.21 and $2.39. Market sentiments have changed, but technicals suggest that the bulls may remain passive for a while, which could offer some room for a bearish pullback.

The price broke out of the wedge with a significant increase in volume, but the current volume suggests that the bulls have taken a step back. Meanwhile, the RSI is about to reach the upper boundary, which could attract bearish forces. Additionally, the DMI has undergone a bullish crossover, but the decline in the ADX suggests that the rally may remain consolidated above the gains. Therefore, the WLD price is expected to maintain a horizontal consolidation between $3 and $3.3 and trigger a fresh rally to $4.4 during the next bullish rally.

Arweave (AR) Price Analysis

Arweave formed a strong base around $25, which helped the rally trigger a recovery during the bearish attack. Mt. Gox and German terror forced the price to fall below $20. However, the recent price action has brought the altcoin within the bullish range and raised expectations of maintaining a decent uptrend for a few more days.

AR price has hit one of the major resistances around $30 to $31.5, which could act as a strong base once overcome. The buying volume is slowly increasing, which could keep the bullish hopes for the rally high. Moreover, the supertrend has just flashed a buy signal, indicating a clean reversal of the trend. Therefore, AR price seems primed to maintain a healthy uptrend and rally above $40. However, if the bulls maintain a similar trend, making new highs above $50 may not be a tedious task for the bulls.

Price Analysis of Injective (INJ)

Injective price has been showing sharp strength since the beginning of the year and hence, the recent turnaround is expected to revive a good uptrend going forward. The bears engulfed the rally to a large extent, but the recent price action suggests that the bulls have regained their dominance. Therefore, INJ price is expected to maintain a strong uptrend with a bearish interference on the way down.

INJ price has surged above the lower support zone and has registered consecutive bullish candles. Although the volume is below the required levels, the OBV is maintaining a sharp uptrend. Furthermore, the Ichimoku cloud lead span B is heading towards the lead span A and a healthy crossover indicates the start of a new uptrend. However, INJ price may be out of the bears’ reach once it secures the resistance zone between $30.77 and $32.12, which seems to be on the horizon.

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Markets

Ethereum at $3.5K, Exchange Supply Hits 34-Month High

FinCrypt Staff

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Ethereum at $3.5K, Exchange Supply Hits 34-Month High

Ethereum (ETH) supply on exchanges has hit a 34-month high as the asset’s price surpassed the $3,500 mark.

ETH has risen 2.3% over the past 24 hours and is trading at $3,490 at the time of writing. The second-largest cryptocurrency — with a market cap of $419 billion — briefly touched an intraday high of $3,517 earlier today.

ETH Price, Whale Activity, RSI, and Exchange Supply – July 17 | Source: Santiment

Ethereum’s daily trading volume also increased by 7.6% to reach $19.8 billion.

According to data provided by Santiment, the supply of Ethereum on exchanges has reached $19.52 million ETH. This level was last seen in September 2021, when the asset was trading around the same price.

On the other hand, data from the market intelligence platform shows that the number of whale transactions has fallen by 12% in the last day — falling from 8,730 to 7,629 unique transactions per day.

The move shows that the supply of Ethereum on exchanges has been increasing with small deposits rather than large transactions from whales.

Additionally, the ETH Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering at the 60-mark, per Santiment. The indicator shows that Ethereum is slightly overbought at this price point, but it may not be in a critical position due to its large market cap.

One of the main drivers of Ethereum price increase is ETH spot expectations ETFs in the US Investment products are scheduled to start trading on July 23rd.

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Markets

Bits + Beeps: How to Play the ‘Trump Trade’ in Cryptocurrencies After the Assassination Attempt

FinCrypt Staff

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Bits + Bips: How to Play the ‘Trump Trade’ in Crypto After the Assassination Attempt

Also, how much will the Fed cut rates (and when)? What will be the inflows into ETH ETFs? And what is the near future for Bitcoin?

Posted on July 17, 2024 at 12:00 PM EST.

Listen to the episode at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Capsules, Source, Podcast Addict, Pocket molds, Amazon Musicor on your favorite podcast platform.

In this episode of Bits + Bips, hosts James Seyffart, Alex Kruger and Joe McCann, joined by guest Jack Platts, dive into the market reaction to the recent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, analyzing how this event will influence the 2024 US presidential election and the cryptocurrency markets.

They also cover potential rate cuts: Could there be a cut in July? How big could the September rate cut be? Could the decision be influenced by the upcoming election?

They also give their predictions on what percentage of BTC ETF inflows the ETH ETFs will reach, and James talks about what he expects for Grayscale’s ETHE (hint: his outlook would be positive for ETH).

Finally, they delve into what’s next for Bitcoin as the German government runs out of BTC and Mt. Gox distributions begin. Just now?

Program Highlights:

  • Whether Trump’s shooting decided the election and whether the event caused a “flight to safety”
  • How election markets are becoming a place to watch election probabilities and whether cryptocurrencies “lean right”
  • Whether rate cuts will occur in July or September and by how much they will cut: 25 bps or 50 bps
  • How Joe sees the relationship between global liquidity cycles, rate cuts, and the potential rise of Bitcoin
  • What are the new updates about Ethereum ETFs and their expected launch?
  • Why Solana Hasn’t Performed Significantly Better Since Trump News
  • What Market Breadth Indicates About the Current Market Rally and the Impact of Rates on Small Caps
  • Everyone’s predictions on ETH ETF inflows and how much outflow we’ll see on Grayscale’s ETHE
  • What’s Next for BTC After German Government Exits Bitcoin and Mt. Gox Giveaways Starting This Week

Hosts:

Guest:

  • Jack PlattsCo-Founder and Managing Partner of Hypersphere Ventures

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