Markets
How is the “Trump Trade” Impacting Cryptocurrency Markets?

Cryptocurrency has always been a wild ride, but when politics gets involved, things get even more interesting and unpredictable. As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, the role of politics in shaping crypto markets and trading behaviors has become a hot topic, and the influence of political figures and events in this regard is equally undeniable.
As one reputable crypto media platform suggested, political leaders who support crypto innovation may attract younger, tech-savvy voters. Conversely, those who advocate strict regulations may attract voters concerned about security and fraud. How these candidates approach crypto could influence voters’ opinions and, consequently, impact the market.
What do the numbers say?
The growing importance of cryptocurrency in US politics is evident as presidential candidates are now accepting donations in cryptocurrency. Harris Poll November 2023 poll showed that 47% of American voters think cryptocurrency will be part of their investment portfolio in some form. This, coupled with the approval of Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) show that the cryptocurrency’s future looks bright.
Source: Cointelegraph
Interestingly, another Grayscale sponsored Insights from the Harris Poll in April found that “nearly half” of voters “don’t trust political candidates who would interfere with cryptocurrencies.” The report further indicated that 3 in 10 people are more likely to support a pro-crypto politician.
Source: Harris Poll Insights 2024
Historical context
Looking back to 2017, President Trump’s signing of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act had a significant impact curling effects on the stock market and the cryptocurrency market. The act increased substantially Bitcoinvalue, with the cryptocurrency reaching nearly $20,000 in December 2017.
However, in 2018, the Trump administration’s crackdown on cryptocurrency scams and fraudulent ICOs caused Bitcoin‘s price falls. This demonstrates how political events and statements can influence the market positively or negatively.
The impact of politics on cryptocurrencies is not limited to the U.S. Global political events and figures also impact the market. For example, regulatory decisions in China have historically caused significant market movements. In 2021, China’s crackdown Bitcoin mining has led to a massive drop in Bitcoinprice of ‘.
On the other hand, El Salvador’s announcement of Bitcoin as legal tender had a positive impact on the market. According to the data, the closing price of Bitcoin in June of that year it was around US$35,127.08 and in September the price of BTC closed at US$43,858.37, again reflecting the market’s sensitivity to political decisions.
The ‘Trump Trade’ and Cryptocurrency
Former President Donald Trump, who once called Bitcoin a “fraud” and insisted that it “competes with the dollar,” which he wanted to remain “the world’s currency,” he recently expressed strong support for the industry.
His promises to support the US cryptocurrency miners It is reduce regulations have garnered industry support and funding—like the million dollars in Ethereum (ETH) from former Kraken CEO Jesse Powellanother 2 million dollars in Bitcoin (BTC) of Winklevoss Twinsand telling.
I just donated $1 million in bitcoin (15.47 BTC) for @realDonaldTrump and will vote for him in November. Here’s why:
In recent years, the Biden Administration has openly declared war on cryptocurrencies. It has armed multiple government agencies to intimidate, harass, and… foto.twitter.com/qOQSpmanBR
— Tyler Winklevoss (@tyler) June 20, 2024
This shift in position, often referred to as the “Trump Trade”, has caused Bitcoin a fundamental issue in the 2024 elections.
The Trump Trade refers to the simultaneous rise in U.S. stocks, Treasury yields and the dollar that followed Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election. Analysts at Bernstein suggest that cryptocurrency could emerge as the main Trump Trade during the current election cycle, as Republican prospects improve and the party’s standard-bearer increasingly adopts a pro-crypto viewpoint.
This shift in political stance towards cryptocurrencies is not just a campaign financing strategy, but also a reflection of the growing importance and acceptance of digital assets in the political arena.
The Demographics of the Crypto Voter
Furthermore, the demographic of crypto voters is diverse, not only in terms of political allegiances but also in terms of their social and psychological characteristics. Experts are divided on how the 2024 election will impact the crypto market. Some believe the market could surge if a pro-crypto candidate wins the election. Others worry that too much freedom could lead to scams and instability.
A to study A 2022 study published in the journal PLOS ONE found that 30% of American adults owned some form of cryptocurrency. These individuals have a variety of beliefs and political identities. The study also found that the cryptocurrency market can change significantly around election times.
Source: PLOS ONE Report
How Cryptocurrency Policies Could Affect the Election
Cryptocurrency policies are playing a bigger role than ever in the 2024 presidential election. This is the first election where major candidates are discussing crypto prominently. For example, as previously noted, Trump is now accepting crypto donations for his campaign and has given to crypto industry advocates such as Messari CEO Ryan Selkis a platform to speak out about their beliefs. This is the beginning of their effort to attract the anti-central bank digital currency (CBDC) and pro-crypto vote.
On the other hand, the Biden campaign claims to be talking to crypto companies to seek guidance on a good “crypto community and crypto policy for the future” after Biden in May vetoed the SEC’s Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 (SAB 121) — which would have allowed financial institutions to host cryptocurrencies — claiming the act would “put the welfare of consumers and investors at risk.”
Clearly, Trump’s pro-crypto stance has put pressure on the president Joe Biden to soften his previous aggressive stance. However, many believe that Biden is taking a firm stance against the cryptocurrency industry.
If Trump wins the election, we could see a surge in crypto investments. If the election swings more towards the Republican side, crypto could become a major Trump trade and hopes for a better regulatory environment could change the narrative around blockchains.
Perhaps in a continued effort by the Trump camp to secure the crypto vote, Decrypt Media recently reported that Trump will still speak at the historic Bitcoin Conference in Nashville in less than two weeks, despite escaping an assassination attempt over the weekend.
The marriage of politics and cryptocurrency is a fascinating and complex subject. The influence of political figures and events on cryptocurrency markets and trading behaviors is undeniable. And as Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said last year: “Being anti-crypto is a very bad political strategy for 2024.” And here we are.
Author: Ayanfe Fakunle
The #DisruptionBanking editorial team has taken every precaution to ensure that no person or organization has been negatively impacted or received any type of financial advice from this article. This article is definitely not financial advice.
Markets
Crypto Markets Rebound as Spot Bitcoin ETFs Attract Massive Inflows

This week saw $722 million worth of Bitcoin spot ETF inflows, including the largest daily inflow in a month.
Cryptocurrency markets rallied on Wednesday, driven by inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is up 3% over the past 24 hours to last change hands at $65,200, according to CoinGecko. Ethereum (ETH) is up 2% and is trading at $3,471. Solana (SUN) and Polkadot (POINT) increased by 4%.
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $422 million in daily inflows on Tuesday, the highest in the past 30 days, according to Far side data, . The all-time record for a single day was $1.05 billion on March 12.
Among Tuesday’s top contributors, BlackRock’s IBIT led with $260 million in inflows, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with $61 million. This week has already seen more than $722 million in inflows.
Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, Worldcoin (WLD) led with a 28% increase, followed by Helium (HNT) with 20% and Lido DAO (LDO) with 15%.
Worldcoin, a decentralized identity project led by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, announced is extending the lockups for early investors and team members. This means that tokens will be gradually released through 2029, instead of the original 2027 plan. Token unlocks are generally seen as a negative because they increase supply and early investors can sell their tokens for profit.
Meanwhile, XRP, the token of the XRP Ledger network, jumped 8% after the CME and CF benchmarks introduced new indices and reference rates for XRP.
U.S. stocks faced a downturn on Wednesday. The S&P 500 fell 1%, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average both fell 2%.
Markets
Altcoins on the cusp of a major breakout – WLD, AR, and INJ prices could surge by 20% in the coming days

Crypto markets appear to have been taken over by the bulls as major tokens have surged above their crucial resistance zone. Bitcoin surged above $65,000 while Ethereum was above $3,500, and XRP, which had remained passive for quite some time, surged over 40% in the past few days to hit $0.6. The uptrend has been captured in most altcoins, with Worldcoin (WLD), Arweave (AR), and Injective (INJ) leading the rally. Here’s what to expect for these tokens in the coming days.
Worldcoin (WLD) Price Analysis
O Worldcoin Price has been trading inside a descending wedge since it marked a new ATH near $12 in the final days of Q1 2024. The recent price action helped the price break out of the upper resistance of the wedge, breaking above the crucial resistance zone between $2.21 and $2.39. Market sentiments have changed, but technicals suggest that the bulls may remain passive for a while, which could offer some room for a bearish pullback.
The price broke out of the wedge with a significant increase in volume, but the current volume suggests that the bulls have taken a step back. Meanwhile, the RSI is about to reach the upper boundary, which could attract bearish forces. Additionally, the DMI has undergone a bullish crossover, but the decline in the ADX suggests that the rally may remain consolidated above the gains. Therefore, the WLD price is expected to maintain a horizontal consolidation between $3 and $3.3 and trigger a fresh rally to $4.4 during the next bullish rally.
Arweave (AR) Price Analysis
Arweave formed a strong base around $25, which helped the rally trigger a recovery during the bearish attack. Mt. Gox and German terror forced the price to fall below $20. However, the recent price action has brought the altcoin within the bullish range and raised expectations of maintaining a decent uptrend for a few more days.
AR price has hit one of the major resistances around $30 to $31.5, which could act as a strong base once overcome. The buying volume is slowly increasing, which could keep the bullish hopes for the rally high. Moreover, the supertrend has just flashed a buy signal, indicating a clean reversal of the trend. Therefore, AR price seems primed to maintain a healthy uptrend and rally above $40. However, if the bulls maintain a similar trend, making new highs above $50 may not be a tedious task for the bulls.
Price Analysis of Injective (INJ)
Injective price has been showing sharp strength since the beginning of the year and hence, the recent turnaround is expected to revive a good uptrend going forward. The bears engulfed the rally to a large extent, but the recent price action suggests that the bulls have regained their dominance. Therefore, INJ price is expected to maintain a strong uptrend with a bearish interference on the way down.
INJ price has surged above the lower support zone and has registered consecutive bullish candles. Although the volume is below the required levels, the OBV is maintaining a sharp uptrend. Furthermore, the Ichimoku cloud lead span B is heading towards the lead span A and a healthy crossover indicates the start of a new uptrend. However, INJ price may be out of the bears’ reach once it secures the resistance zone between $30.77 and $32.12, which seems to be on the horizon.
Markets
Ethereum at $3.5K, Exchange Supply Hits 34-Month High

Ethereum (ETH) supply on exchanges has hit a 34-month high as the asset’s price surpassed the $3,500 mark.
ETH has risen 2.3% over the past 24 hours and is trading at $3,490 at the time of writing. The second-largest cryptocurrency — with a market cap of $419 billion — briefly touched an intraday high of $3,517 earlier today.
ETH Price, Whale Activity, RSI, and Exchange Supply – July 17 | Source: Santiment
Ethereum’s daily trading volume also increased by 7.6% to reach $19.8 billion.
According to data provided by Santiment, the supply of Ethereum on exchanges has reached $19.52 million ETH. This level was last seen in September 2021, when the asset was trading around the same price.
On the other hand, data from the market intelligence platform shows that the number of whale transactions has fallen by 12% in the last day — falling from 8,730 to 7,629 unique transactions per day.
The move shows that the supply of Ethereum on exchanges has been increasing with small deposits rather than large transactions from whales.
Additionally, the ETH Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering at the 60-mark, per Santiment. The indicator shows that Ethereum is slightly overbought at this price point, but it may not be in a critical position due to its large market cap.
One of the main drivers of Ethereum price increase is ETH spot expectations ETFs in the US Investment products are scheduled to start trading on July 23rd.
Markets
Bits + Beeps: How to Play the ‘Trump Trade’ in Cryptocurrencies After the Assassination Attempt

Also, how much will the Fed cut rates (and when)? What will be the inflows into ETH ETFs? And what is the near future for Bitcoin?
Posted on July 17, 2024 at 12:00 PM EST.
Listen to the episode at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Capsules, Source, Podcast Addict, Pocket molds, Amazon Musicor on your favorite podcast platform.
In this episode of Bits + Bips, hosts James Seyffart, Alex Kruger and Joe McCann, joined by guest Jack Platts, dive into the market reaction to the recent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, analyzing how this event will influence the 2024 US presidential election and the cryptocurrency markets.
They also cover potential rate cuts: Could there be a cut in July? How big could the September rate cut be? Could the decision be influenced by the upcoming election?
They also give their predictions on what percentage of BTC ETF inflows the ETH ETFs will reach, and James talks about what he expects for Grayscale’s ETHE (hint: his outlook would be positive for ETH).
Finally, they delve into what’s next for Bitcoin as the German government runs out of BTC and Mt. Gox distributions begin. Just now?
Program Highlights:
- Whether Trump’s shooting decided the election and whether the event caused a “flight to safety”
- How election markets are becoming a place to watch election probabilities and whether cryptocurrencies “lean right”
- Whether rate cuts will occur in July or September and by how much they will cut: 25 bps or 50 bps
- How Joe sees the relationship between global liquidity cycles, rate cuts, and the potential rise of Bitcoin
- What are the new updates about Ethereum ETFs and their expected launch?
- Why Solana Hasn’t Performed Significantly Better Since Trump News
- What Market Breadth Indicates About the Current Market Rally and the Impact of Rates on Small Caps
- Everyone’s predictions on ETH ETF inflows and how much outflow we’ll see on Grayscale’s ETHE
- What’s Next for BTC After German Government Exits Bitcoin and Mt. Gox Giveaways Starting This Week
Hosts:
Guest:
- Jack PlattsCo-Founder and Managing Partner of Hypersphere Ventures
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