Markets
Nobel economists warn Trump’s re-election could reignite inflation, impacting cryptocurrency markets
Photo by Darren Halstead on Unsplash.
Main conclusions
- Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists express concerns about Trump’s potential re-election and its economic risks.
- Economists cite rising inflation and instability as the main threats under Trump’s economic policies.
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Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists have warned that Donald Trump’s potential re-election could harm the US economy and reignite inflation, a development with significant implications for the broader crypto market.
The economists Letter, released on Tuesday, argues that Trump’s policies would lead to economic instability and rising consumer prices. They claim that his “fiscally irresponsible budgets” could revive high inflation, contrasting this with praise for President Biden’s economic record, including investments in infrastructure and clean energy.
This warning comes as Trump, now a convicted criminalchanged to a pro-cryptocurrency stance in your campaign. He promised to end what he calls the U.S. government hostility towards cryptocurrency and started accepting crypto donations. This move represents a marked shift from his previous critical views on cryptocurrencies and digital assets more broadly.
“We believe that a second Trump term would have a negative impact on the US economic position in the world and a destabilizing effect on the US domestic economy,” the economists said.
Crypto industry leaders like Cathie Wood support Trump’s presidential candidacy, believing a victory for Trump is “better for our economy.” Founders like the Winklevoss brothers also support Trump despite their donation to the campaign being refunded.
Crypto and Inflation Data
The potential for renewed inflation under a Trump presidency could have mixed effects on the crypto market. While some view Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, data shows a negative correlation between its price and rising consumer prices. However, cryptocurrencies often see gains when the money supply (M2) grows, which could occur under expansionary fiscal policies.
Recent cryptocurrency market rallies have already raised concerns about potential inflationary impacts. The “wealth effect” of unrealized cryptocurrency gains could boost consumer spending, potentially injecting demand inflation into the economy. This may force the Federal Reserve to reconsider planned interest rate cuts.
The chart below, taken from Perplexity based on data from CoinMarketCap, shows that there is a complex relationship between economic factors and the performance of cryptocurrencies.
BTC, ETH and SOL performance versus CPI data. Source indicated.
The chart shows that cryptocurrency prices, especially for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana, have exhibited greater volatility compared to traditional CPI measures over the past year. This volatility could be exacerbated by the economic instability warned by Nobel economists in the event of Trump’s re-election.
The chart indicates that while crypto has seen significant price appreciation, it remains susceptible to sharp corrections. These corrections often coincide with periods of economic uncertainty, which could become more frequent under policies described as “fiscally irresponsible” by Nobel economists. The unpredictable nature of Trump’s policymaking style, as highlighted in the warning, could lead to increased market volatility, potentially deterring institutional investors and slowing the widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies.
The data also shows that energy prices have a notable impact on the overall CPI. Trump’s energy policies, which may differ significantly from current approaches, could lead to fluctuations in energy costs. This, in turn, could affect mining profitability and network security for proof-of-work networks like Bitcoin, potentially destabilizing the broader crypto ecosystem.
Economists’ concerns about international relations under a Trump presidency could also negatively impact the global nature of crypto markets. Strained diplomatic ties could hinder cross-border transactions and collaborative efforts to develop global crypto regulations, potentially fragmenting the market and reducing liquidity.
For the crypto industry, the economists’ warning highlights the complex interplay between macroeconomic policies, inflation and digital asset markets. While Trump’s pro-crypto stance may seem favorable, the broader economic instability predicted by these economists could create a challenging environment for crypto.
The contrasting economic views presented by Trump and Biden, and their potential impacts on inflation and monetary policy, will likely be key factors influencing the trajectory of the crypto market before and after the 2024 US presidential election.
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Markets
Crypto Markets Rebound as Spot Bitcoin ETFs Attract Massive Inflows
This week saw $722 million worth of Bitcoin spot ETF inflows, including the largest daily inflow in a month.
Cryptocurrency markets rallied on Wednesday, driven by inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is up 3% over the past 24 hours to last change hands at $65,200, according to CoinGecko. Ethereum (ETH) is up 2% and is trading at $3,471. Solana (SUN) and Polkadot (POINT) increased by 4%.
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $422 million in daily inflows on Tuesday, the highest in the past 30 days, according to Far side data, . The all-time record for a single day was $1.05 billion on March 12.
Among Tuesday’s top contributors, BlackRock’s IBIT led with $260 million in inflows, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with $61 million. This week has already seen more than $722 million in inflows.
Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, Worldcoin (WLD) led with a 28% increase, followed by Helium (HNT) with 20% and Lido DAO (LDO) with 15%.
Worldcoin, a decentralized identity project led by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, announced is extending the lockups for early investors and team members. This means that tokens will be gradually released through 2029, instead of the original 2027 plan. Token unlocks are generally seen as a negative because they increase supply and early investors can sell their tokens for profit.
Meanwhile, XRP, the token of the XRP Ledger network, jumped 8% after the CME and CF benchmarks introduced new indices and reference rates for XRP.
U.S. stocks faced a downturn on Wednesday. The S&P 500 fell 1%, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average both fell 2%.
Markets
Altcoins on the cusp of a major breakout – WLD, AR, and INJ prices could surge by 20% in the coming days
Crypto markets appear to have been taken over by the bulls as major tokens have surged above their crucial resistance zone. Bitcoin surged above $65,000 while Ethereum was above $3,500, and XRP, which had remained passive for quite some time, surged over 40% in the past few days to hit $0.6. The uptrend has been captured in most altcoins, with Worldcoin (WLD), Arweave (AR), and Injective (INJ) leading the rally. Here’s what to expect for these tokens in the coming days.
Worldcoin (WLD) Price Analysis
O Worldcoin Price has been trading inside a descending wedge since it marked a new ATH near $12 in the final days of Q1 2024. The recent price action helped the price break out of the upper resistance of the wedge, breaking above the crucial resistance zone between $2.21 and $2.39. Market sentiments have changed, but technicals suggest that the bulls may remain passive for a while, which could offer some room for a bearish pullback.
The price broke out of the wedge with a significant increase in volume, but the current volume suggests that the bulls have taken a step back. Meanwhile, the RSI is about to reach the upper boundary, which could attract bearish forces. Additionally, the DMI has undergone a bullish crossover, but the decline in the ADX suggests that the rally may remain consolidated above the gains. Therefore, the WLD price is expected to maintain a horizontal consolidation between $3 and $3.3 and trigger a fresh rally to $4.4 during the next bullish rally.
Arweave (AR) Price Analysis
Arweave formed a strong base around $25, which helped the rally trigger a recovery during the bearish attack. Mt. Gox and German terror forced the price to fall below $20. However, the recent price action has brought the altcoin within the bullish range and raised expectations of maintaining a decent uptrend for a few more days.
AR price has hit one of the major resistances around $30 to $31.5, which could act as a strong base once overcome. The buying volume is slowly increasing, which could keep the bullish hopes for the rally high. Moreover, the supertrend has just flashed a buy signal, indicating a clean reversal of the trend. Therefore, AR price seems primed to maintain a healthy uptrend and rally above $40. However, if the bulls maintain a similar trend, making new highs above $50 may not be a tedious task for the bulls.
Price Analysis of Injective (INJ)
Injective price has been showing sharp strength since the beginning of the year and hence, the recent turnaround is expected to revive a good uptrend going forward. The bears engulfed the rally to a large extent, but the recent price action suggests that the bulls have regained their dominance. Therefore, INJ price is expected to maintain a strong uptrend with a bearish interference on the way down.
INJ price has surged above the lower support zone and has registered consecutive bullish candles. Although the volume is below the required levels, the OBV is maintaining a sharp uptrend. Furthermore, the Ichimoku cloud lead span B is heading towards the lead span A and a healthy crossover indicates the start of a new uptrend. However, INJ price may be out of the bears’ reach once it secures the resistance zone between $30.77 and $32.12, which seems to be on the horizon.
Markets
Ethereum at $3.5K, Exchange Supply Hits 34-Month High
Ethereum (ETH) supply on exchanges has hit a 34-month high as the asset’s price surpassed the $3,500 mark.
ETH has risen 2.3% over the past 24 hours and is trading at $3,490 at the time of writing. The second-largest cryptocurrency — with a market cap of $419 billion — briefly touched an intraday high of $3,517 earlier today.
ETH Price, Whale Activity, RSI, and Exchange Supply – July 17 | Source: Santiment
Ethereum’s daily trading volume also increased by 7.6% to reach $19.8 billion.
According to data provided by Santiment, the supply of Ethereum on exchanges has reached $19.52 million ETH. This level was last seen in September 2021, when the asset was trading around the same price.
On the other hand, data from the market intelligence platform shows that the number of whale transactions has fallen by 12% in the last day — falling from 8,730 to 7,629 unique transactions per day.
The move shows that the supply of Ethereum on exchanges has been increasing with small deposits rather than large transactions from whales.
Additionally, the ETH Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering at the 60-mark, per Santiment. The indicator shows that Ethereum is slightly overbought at this price point, but it may not be in a critical position due to its large market cap.
One of the main drivers of Ethereum price increase is ETH spot expectations ETFs in the US Investment products are scheduled to start trading on July 23rd.
Markets
Bits + Beeps: How to Play the ‘Trump Trade’ in Cryptocurrencies After the Assassination Attempt
Also, how much will the Fed cut rates (and when)? What will be the inflows into ETH ETFs? And what is the near future for Bitcoin?
Posted on July 17, 2024 at 12:00 PM EST.
Listen to the episode at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Capsules, Source, Podcast Addict, Pocket molds, Amazon Musicor on your favorite podcast platform.
In this episode of Bits + Bips, hosts James Seyffart, Alex Kruger and Joe McCann, joined by guest Jack Platts, dive into the market reaction to the recent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, analyzing how this event will influence the 2024 US presidential election and the cryptocurrency markets.
They also cover potential rate cuts: Could there be a cut in July? How big could the September rate cut be? Could the decision be influenced by the upcoming election?
They also give their predictions on what percentage of BTC ETF inflows the ETH ETFs will reach, and James talks about what he expects for Grayscale’s ETHE (hint: his outlook would be positive for ETH).
Finally, they delve into what’s next for Bitcoin as the German government runs out of BTC and Mt. Gox distributions begin. Just now?
Program Highlights:
- Whether Trump’s shooting decided the election and whether the event caused a “flight to safety”
- How election markets are becoming a place to watch election probabilities and whether cryptocurrencies “lean right”
- Whether rate cuts will occur in July or September and by how much they will cut: 25 bps or 50 bps
- How Joe sees the relationship between global liquidity cycles, rate cuts, and the potential rise of Bitcoin
- What are the new updates about Ethereum ETFs and their expected launch?
- Why Solana Hasn’t Performed Significantly Better Since Trump News
- What Market Breadth Indicates About the Current Market Rally and the Impact of Rates on Small Caps
- Everyone’s predictions on ETH ETF inflows and how much outflow we’ll see on Grayscale’s ETHE
- What’s Next for BTC After German Government Exits Bitcoin and Mt. Gox Giveaways Starting This Week
Hosts:
Guest:
- Jack PlattsCo-Founder and Managing Partner of Hypersphere Ventures
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