Markets
Weekly Crypto Market Update: So Where Is Bitcoin Heading Now?
Last week, the ADP Employment report showed that US private companies hired about 152,000 workers, lower than expected and lower than the revised 188,000 from the previous month. Economists had predicted a reading of 173,000. The lowest additions to the US private sector come a day after US job openings fell to their lowest level since February 2021. These readings could signal potential weakness in the US labor market going forward.
However, at the end of the week, the US Department of Labor reported a mixed result, as the US economy created about 272,000 new jobs in May 2024, a number much higher than the 180,000 as economists had expected. This is a strong increase in new jobs and indicates that U.S. employment remains solid to this point. However, care must be taken when drawing final conclusions from this report, as these numbers have been repeatedly revised downwards in recent months. It was a mixed report as the unemployment rate rose from 3.9% to 4.0%. As a result, it was sold within minutes of the report being published.
source: altFINS.com
The CMC Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which is the digital asset market sentiment indicator, remained around 61.00 from the previous week, indicating “Greed”. We saw that the total cryptocurrency market cap rose slightly by around 0.8% to $2.55 trillion on Monday compared to the previous week, with Bitcoin’s (ETH) dominance fluctuating around of 17.5%, while Bitcoin (BTC) dominance hovered around 54%. USDT dominance fluctuates around 4.4%, which is nearly 50% lower than its peak in January 2023, indicating that funds were gradually shifting from stablecoins to altcoins over the past year and a half.
TOP WEEKLY CRYPTO WINNERS AND LOSERS – Based on altFINS crypto
source: altFINS.com
Top winners:
+19.2%
+16.6%
+10.7
Top losers:
-14%
-14.8%
-15%
SO WHERE IS BITCOIN GOING?
Bitcoin (Bitcoin) briefly crossed the psychological $72,000 mark on Friday, June 7, 2024, only to experience a flash sale to $68,420. The rapid sell-off may have been caused by better-than-expected employment results in the US, indicating that the Fed may have more time to keep rates on hold. It could also have been affected by the expiration of futures options worth about $2.2 billion, including about $1.2 billion expiring at about $69,500. Normally, when we are close to options expiration, the price tends to be volatile. In terms of Bitcoin ETF spot flows, collectively, the 11 ETFs accumulated around $1.8 billion in combined net inflows last week.
As the $72,000 mark has not yet been turned into support, Bitcoin (Bitcoin) continues to consolidate as it trades within a sideways channel between $60,000 – $72,000. This consolidation could take a few more months before we see Bitcoin resuming its bull run. Macroeconomic developments are also supporting sideways trading as more data on US inflation and employment is needed before the Fed can take its next move on interest rates. If the $72,000 level does not hold, the price could now fall to the support zone of around $60,000 during June. If support does not hold, we may revisit the next support zone of $50,000 – $52,000. To stay updated on future BTC price developments and in-depth technical analysis, explore more at altFINS.
source: altFINS.com
WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK
This week, the US Core CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 3.4% in May 2024. The US Core CPI is expected to fall slightly to 3.5% from 3.6% a month earlier. This time, the timing of the CPI report will coincide with the Fed’s monetary policy meeting and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s conference. Based on the CME FedWatch tool, rates are expected to remain unchanged over the next two meetings, with a 45% chance of a first rate cut in September 2024. I believe the Fed will be in wait-and-see mode throughout the third quarter. 2024, and perhaps until the end of the year – this depends on the evolution of inflation and employment in the US throughout the second half of the year. I think they will not reduce rates before the November 2024 presidential elections, as this could trigger new inflationary forces that would be detrimental to the incumbent president.
However, the ECB and Bank of Canada began a new easing cycle last week, with the BOC reducing them to 4.75% and the ECB to 3.75%, below an all-time high of 4%. I believe that once the Bank of England and the Fed follow suit, there will be a wake-up effect on risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies and could push some valuations to all-time highs.
Markets
Crypto Markets Rebound as Spot Bitcoin ETFs Attract Massive Inflows
This week saw $722 million worth of Bitcoin spot ETF inflows, including the largest daily inflow in a month.
Cryptocurrency markets rallied on Wednesday, driven by inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is up 3% over the past 24 hours to last change hands at $65,200, according to CoinGecko. Ethereum (ETH) is up 2% and is trading at $3,471. Solana (SUN) and Polkadot (POINT) increased by 4%.
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $422 million in daily inflows on Tuesday, the highest in the past 30 days, according to Far side data, . The all-time record for a single day was $1.05 billion on March 12.
Among Tuesday’s top contributors, BlackRock’s IBIT led with $260 million in inflows, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with $61 million. This week has already seen more than $722 million in inflows.
Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, Worldcoin (WLD) led with a 28% increase, followed by Helium (HNT) with 20% and Lido DAO (LDO) with 15%.
Worldcoin, a decentralized identity project led by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, announced is extending the lockups for early investors and team members. This means that tokens will be gradually released through 2029, instead of the original 2027 plan. Token unlocks are generally seen as a negative because they increase supply and early investors can sell their tokens for profit.
Meanwhile, XRP, the token of the XRP Ledger network, jumped 8% after the CME and CF benchmarks introduced new indices and reference rates for XRP.
U.S. stocks faced a downturn on Wednesday. The S&P 500 fell 1%, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average both fell 2%.
Markets
Altcoins on the cusp of a major breakout – WLD, AR, and INJ prices could surge by 20% in the coming days
Crypto markets appear to have been taken over by the bulls as major tokens have surged above their crucial resistance zone. Bitcoin surged above $65,000 while Ethereum was above $3,500, and XRP, which had remained passive for quite some time, surged over 40% in the past few days to hit $0.6. The uptrend has been captured in most altcoins, with Worldcoin (WLD), Arweave (AR), and Injective (INJ) leading the rally. Here’s what to expect for these tokens in the coming days.
Worldcoin (WLD) Price Analysis
O Worldcoin Price has been trading inside a descending wedge since it marked a new ATH near $12 in the final days of Q1 2024. The recent price action helped the price break out of the upper resistance of the wedge, breaking above the crucial resistance zone between $2.21 and $2.39. Market sentiments have changed, but technicals suggest that the bulls may remain passive for a while, which could offer some room for a bearish pullback.
The price broke out of the wedge with a significant increase in volume, but the current volume suggests that the bulls have taken a step back. Meanwhile, the RSI is about to reach the upper boundary, which could attract bearish forces. Additionally, the DMI has undergone a bullish crossover, but the decline in the ADX suggests that the rally may remain consolidated above the gains. Therefore, the WLD price is expected to maintain a horizontal consolidation between $3 and $3.3 and trigger a fresh rally to $4.4 during the next bullish rally.
Arweave (AR) Price Analysis
Arweave formed a strong base around $25, which helped the rally trigger a recovery during the bearish attack. Mt. Gox and German terror forced the price to fall below $20. However, the recent price action has brought the altcoin within the bullish range and raised expectations of maintaining a decent uptrend for a few more days.
AR price has hit one of the major resistances around $30 to $31.5, which could act as a strong base once overcome. The buying volume is slowly increasing, which could keep the bullish hopes for the rally high. Moreover, the supertrend has just flashed a buy signal, indicating a clean reversal of the trend. Therefore, AR price seems primed to maintain a healthy uptrend and rally above $40. However, if the bulls maintain a similar trend, making new highs above $50 may not be a tedious task for the bulls.
Price Analysis of Injective (INJ)
Injective price has been showing sharp strength since the beginning of the year and hence, the recent turnaround is expected to revive a good uptrend going forward. The bears engulfed the rally to a large extent, but the recent price action suggests that the bulls have regained their dominance. Therefore, INJ price is expected to maintain a strong uptrend with a bearish interference on the way down.
INJ price has surged above the lower support zone and has registered consecutive bullish candles. Although the volume is below the required levels, the OBV is maintaining a sharp uptrend. Furthermore, the Ichimoku cloud lead span B is heading towards the lead span A and a healthy crossover indicates the start of a new uptrend. However, INJ price may be out of the bears’ reach once it secures the resistance zone between $30.77 and $32.12, which seems to be on the horizon.
Markets
Ethereum at $3.5K, Exchange Supply Hits 34-Month High
Ethereum (ETH) supply on exchanges has hit a 34-month high as the asset’s price surpassed the $3,500 mark.
ETH has risen 2.3% over the past 24 hours and is trading at $3,490 at the time of writing. The second-largest cryptocurrency — with a market cap of $419 billion — briefly touched an intraday high of $3,517 earlier today.
ETH Price, Whale Activity, RSI, and Exchange Supply – July 17 | Source: Santiment
Ethereum’s daily trading volume also increased by 7.6% to reach $19.8 billion.
According to data provided by Santiment, the supply of Ethereum on exchanges has reached $19.52 million ETH. This level was last seen in September 2021, when the asset was trading around the same price.
On the other hand, data from the market intelligence platform shows that the number of whale transactions has fallen by 12% in the last day — falling from 8,730 to 7,629 unique transactions per day.
The move shows that the supply of Ethereum on exchanges has been increasing with small deposits rather than large transactions from whales.
Additionally, the ETH Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering at the 60-mark, per Santiment. The indicator shows that Ethereum is slightly overbought at this price point, but it may not be in a critical position due to its large market cap.
One of the main drivers of Ethereum price increase is ETH spot expectations ETFs in the US Investment products are scheduled to start trading on July 23rd.
Markets
Bits + Beeps: How to Play the ‘Trump Trade’ in Cryptocurrencies After the Assassination Attempt
Also, how much will the Fed cut rates (and when)? What will be the inflows into ETH ETFs? And what is the near future for Bitcoin?
Posted on July 17, 2024 at 12:00 PM EST.
Listen to the episode at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Capsules, Source, Podcast Addict, Pocket molds, Amazon Musicor on your favorite podcast platform.
In this episode of Bits + Bips, hosts James Seyffart, Alex Kruger and Joe McCann, joined by guest Jack Platts, dive into the market reaction to the recent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, analyzing how this event will influence the 2024 US presidential election and the cryptocurrency markets.
They also cover potential rate cuts: Could there be a cut in July? How big could the September rate cut be? Could the decision be influenced by the upcoming election?
They also give their predictions on what percentage of BTC ETF inflows the ETH ETFs will reach, and James talks about what he expects for Grayscale’s ETHE (hint: his outlook would be positive for ETH).
Finally, they delve into what’s next for Bitcoin as the German government runs out of BTC and Mt. Gox distributions begin. Just now?
Program Highlights:
- Whether Trump’s shooting decided the election and whether the event caused a “flight to safety”
- How election markets are becoming a place to watch election probabilities and whether cryptocurrencies “lean right”
- Whether rate cuts will occur in July or September and by how much they will cut: 25 bps or 50 bps
- How Joe sees the relationship between global liquidity cycles, rate cuts, and the potential rise of Bitcoin
- What are the new updates about Ethereum ETFs and their expected launch?
- Why Solana Hasn’t Performed Significantly Better Since Trump News
- What Market Breadth Indicates About the Current Market Rally and the Impact of Rates on Small Caps
- Everyone’s predictions on ETH ETF inflows and how much outflow we’ll see on Grayscale’s ETHE
- What’s Next for BTC After German Government Exits Bitcoin and Mt. Gox Giveaways Starting This Week
Hosts:
Guest:
- Jack PlattsCo-Founder and Managing Partner of Hypersphere Ventures
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