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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Recovery Has Crypto Options Traders Rebounding to $100K

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Recovery Has Crypto Options Traders Rebounding to $100K

Bitcoins (BTC) The renewed price recovery has caused options traders to reconsider the possibility of the cryptocurrency reaching the $100,000 level at some point this year.

The leading cryptocurrency by market cap rose more than 12% to $63,470 since Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell discarded Additional tightening or rate hikes as the next policy move last Wednesday, CoinDesk data shows. Friday’s disappointing US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data validated Powell’s position, accelerating BTC’s rally.

As such, there has been a notable increase in demand for bitcoin call options on major Deribit cryptocurrency exchanges and over-the-counter (OTC) networks. These options specifically target a rally to new highs, potentially surpassing $75,000 and even reaching $100,000.

“We are seeing some follow-through upside in volatility and rates following the recovery from Friday’s reversal and over the weekend. BTC risk reversals were positive (calls are more expensive than puts) and [there has been a] renewed demand for BTC due in September at $75,000 and calls at $100,000,” QCP Capital said in a note on Monday.

A call option gives the right to buy the underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specific date. A call buyer is implicitly bullish on the market and a put buyer is bearish.

Institutional OTC cryptocurrency trading network Paradigm made a similar observation on Monday, stating increased demand for out-of-the-money (OTM) calls or those on strikes well above the BTC market rate.

“The options market appeared to anticipate a short-term rally early this morning, with the main BTC and ETH trades on Paradigm consisting of long-sized OTM calls. [expiry] $200,000 call buyer closing his position to buy July 2024 [expiry] US$85,000 strike,” Paradigm said in a Telegram broadcast.

Data from Deribit shows that traders have locked more than $688 million worth of $100,000 strike call options across different expiries. This is the largest amount of notional open interest among all options listed on the exchange.

At the time of writing, more than 150,000 call options contracts worth $9.5 billion are active on Deribit. This is more than twice the amount of open interest in put options, a sign of optimistic market expectations.

Notional open interest refers to the dollar value locked in the number of active or open contracts. On Deribit, an options contract represents one BTC or one Ether (ETH).

Both fundamental and technical analysts are once again united in the idea that the path of least resistance for bitcoin is on the upside.

“Bitcoin continues to be supported by the US election cycle and ongoing deficit spending. This is why we adjusted our ‘line in the sand’ from 68,300 to 62,000 in our May 3 report – the market could trade (tactically) at rally above 62,000,” 10X Research said.

Siwssblock Insights expects the dollar index (DXY) to remain on the defensive unless Powell’s position is challenged. A weaker DXY is generally good for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. The DXY fell 1.2% to 105.20 since Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting.

“The dollar’s weaker position will likely persist as long as economic data continues to support that direction and as long as Federal Reserve officials do not contradict Powell’s position. The labor market is showing signs of easing, but more aggressive voices from the Fed may still push to keep rates higher for longer, which could impact the dollar’s trajectory,” said the latest Swissblock Insights newsletter.

Meanwhile, Elliot wave analysis by John Glover, chief investment officer at Ledn, suggests bitcoin could rise to 92,000.

‘BTC price action continues to track my expected path for Wave 4, as seen in the chart below. While the drop to $56.5K may have completed the correction, I still expect to see a price of $52-55K before Wave 4 concludes. 2/ Once Wave 4 is complete, I expect the momentum from Wave 5 to around $92K occurs,” Glover said in an email to CoinDesk.

Ralph Nelson Elliott introduced Elliot wave theory in 1938 in his book The Wave Principle. The theory assumes that asset price movements can be predicted by observing and identifying a repeating wave pattern.

Trends unfold into five waves, of which 1,3 and 5 are impulse waves, representing the primary trend, while 2 and 4 show temporary pullbacks of previous impulse waves.

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We are the editorial team of FinCrypt, where seriousness meets clarity in cryptocurrency analysis. With a robust team of finance and blockchain technology experts, we are dedicated to meticulously exploring complex crypto markets with detailed assessments and an unbiased approach. Our mission is to democratize access to knowledge of emerging financial technologies, ensuring they are understandable and accessible to all. In every article on FinCrypt, we strive to provide content that not only educates, but also empowers our readers, facilitating their integration into the financial digital age.

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Markets

Crypto Markets Rebound as Spot Bitcoin ETFs Attract Massive Inflows

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Crypto Markets Rebound Ahead of Early Ethereum ETF Approval

This week saw $722 million worth of Bitcoin spot ETF inflows, including the largest daily inflow in a month.

Cryptocurrency markets rallied on Wednesday, driven by inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is up 3% over the past 24 hours to last change hands at $65,200, according to CoinGecko. Ethereum (ETH) is up 2% and is trading at $3,471. Solana (SUN) and Polkadot (POINT) increased by 4%.

Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $422 million in daily inflows on Tuesday, the highest in the past 30 days, according to Far side data, . The all-time record for a single day was $1.05 billion on March 12.

Among Tuesday’s top contributors, BlackRock’s IBIT led with $260 million in inflows, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with $61 million. This week has already seen more than $722 million in inflows.

Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, Worldcoin (WLD) led with a 28% increase, followed by Helium (HNT) with 20% and Lido DAO (LDO) with 15%.

Worldcoin, a decentralized identity project led by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, announced is extending the lockups for early investors and team members. This means that tokens will be gradually released through 2029, instead of the original 2027 plan. Token unlocks are generally seen as a negative because they increase supply and early investors can sell their tokens for profit.

Meanwhile, XRP, the token of the XRP Ledger network, jumped 8% after the CME and CF benchmarks introduced new indices and reference rates for XRP.

U.S. stocks faced a downturn on Wednesday. The S&P 500 fell 1%, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average both fell 2%.

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Altcoins on the cusp of a major breakout – WLD, AR, and INJ prices could surge by 20% in the coming days

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Altcoins on the cusp of a major breakout – WLD, AR, and INJ prices could surge by 20% in the coming days

Crypto markets appear to have been taken over by the bulls as major tokens have surged above their crucial resistance zone. Bitcoin surged above $65,000 while Ethereum was above $3,500, and XRP, which had remained passive for quite some time, surged over 40% in the past few days to hit $0.6. The uptrend has been captured in most altcoins, with Worldcoin (WLD), Arweave (AR), and Injective (INJ) leading the rally. Here’s what to expect for these tokens in the coming days.

Worldcoin (WLD) Price Analysis

O Worldcoin Price has been trading inside a descending wedge since it marked a new ATH near $12 in the final days of Q1 2024. The recent price action helped the price break out of the upper resistance of the wedge, breaking above the crucial resistance zone between $2.21 and $2.39. Market sentiments have changed, but technicals suggest that the bulls may remain passive for a while, which could offer some room for a bearish pullback.

The price broke out of the wedge with a significant increase in volume, but the current volume suggests that the bulls have taken a step back. Meanwhile, the RSI is about to reach the upper boundary, which could attract bearish forces. Additionally, the DMI has undergone a bullish crossover, but the decline in the ADX suggests that the rally may remain consolidated above the gains. Therefore, the WLD price is expected to maintain a horizontal consolidation between $3 and $3.3 and trigger a fresh rally to $4.4 during the next bullish rally.

Arweave (AR) Price Analysis

Arweave formed a strong base around $25, which helped the rally trigger a recovery during the bearish attack. Mt. Gox and German terror forced the price to fall below $20. However, the recent price action has brought the altcoin within the bullish range and raised expectations of maintaining a decent uptrend for a few more days.

AR price has hit one of the major resistances around $30 to $31.5, which could act as a strong base once overcome. The buying volume is slowly increasing, which could keep the bullish hopes for the rally high. Moreover, the supertrend has just flashed a buy signal, indicating a clean reversal of the trend. Therefore, AR price seems primed to maintain a healthy uptrend and rally above $40. However, if the bulls maintain a similar trend, making new highs above $50 may not be a tedious task for the bulls.

Price Analysis of Injective (INJ)

Injective price has been showing sharp strength since the beginning of the year and hence, the recent turnaround is expected to revive a good uptrend going forward. The bears engulfed the rally to a large extent, but the recent price action suggests that the bulls have regained their dominance. Therefore, INJ price is expected to maintain a strong uptrend with a bearish interference on the way down.

INJ price has surged above the lower support zone and has registered consecutive bullish candles. Although the volume is below the required levels, the OBV is maintaining a sharp uptrend. Furthermore, the Ichimoku cloud lead span B is heading towards the lead span A and a healthy crossover indicates the start of a new uptrend. However, INJ price may be out of the bears’ reach once it secures the resistance zone between $30.77 and $32.12, which seems to be on the horizon.

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Ethereum at $3.5K, Exchange Supply Hits 34-Month High

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Ethereum at $3.5K, Exchange Supply Hits 34-Month High

Ethereum (ETH) supply on exchanges has hit a 34-month high as the asset’s price surpassed the $3,500 mark.

ETH has risen 2.3% over the past 24 hours and is trading at $3,490 at the time of writing. The second-largest cryptocurrency — with a market cap of $419 billion — briefly touched an intraday high of $3,517 earlier today.

ETH Price, Whale Activity, RSI, and Exchange Supply – July 17 | Source: Santiment

Ethereum’s daily trading volume also increased by 7.6% to reach $19.8 billion.

According to data provided by Santiment, the supply of Ethereum on exchanges has reached $19.52 million ETH. This level was last seen in September 2021, when the asset was trading around the same price.

On the other hand, data from the market intelligence platform shows that the number of whale transactions has fallen by 12% in the last day — falling from 8,730 to 7,629 unique transactions per day.

The move shows that the supply of Ethereum on exchanges has been increasing with small deposits rather than large transactions from whales.

Additionally, the ETH Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering at the 60-mark, per Santiment. The indicator shows that Ethereum is slightly overbought at this price point, but it may not be in a critical position due to its large market cap.

One of the main drivers of Ethereum price increase is ETH spot expectations ETFs in the US Investment products are scheduled to start trading on July 23rd.

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Bits + Beeps: How to Play the ‘Trump Trade’ in Cryptocurrencies After the Assassination Attempt

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Bits + Bips: How to Play the ‘Trump Trade’ in Crypto After the Assassination Attempt

Also, how much will the Fed cut rates (and when)? What will be the inflows into ETH ETFs? And what is the near future for Bitcoin?

Posted on July 17, 2024 at 12:00 PM EST.

Listen to the episode at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Capsules, Source, Podcast Addict, Pocket molds, Amazon Musicor on your favorite podcast platform.

In this episode of Bits + Bips, hosts James Seyffart, Alex Kruger and Joe McCann, joined by guest Jack Platts, dive into the market reaction to the recent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, analyzing how this event will influence the 2024 US presidential election and the cryptocurrency markets.

They also cover potential rate cuts: Could there be a cut in July? How big could the September rate cut be? Could the decision be influenced by the upcoming election?

They also give their predictions on what percentage of BTC ETF inflows the ETH ETFs will reach, and James talks about what he expects for Grayscale’s ETHE (hint: his outlook would be positive for ETH).

Finally, they delve into what’s next for Bitcoin as the German government runs out of BTC and Mt. Gox distributions begin. Just now?

Program Highlights:

  • Whether Trump’s shooting decided the election and whether the event caused a “flight to safety”
  • How election markets are becoming a place to watch election probabilities and whether cryptocurrencies “lean right”
  • Whether rate cuts will occur in July or September and by how much they will cut: 25 bps or 50 bps
  • How Joe sees the relationship between global liquidity cycles, rate cuts, and the potential rise of Bitcoin
  • What are the new updates about Ethereum ETFs and their expected launch?
  • Why Solana Hasn’t Performed Significantly Better Since Trump News
  • What Market Breadth Indicates About the Current Market Rally and the Impact of Rates on Small Caps
  • Everyone’s predictions on ETH ETF inflows and how much outflow we’ll see on Grayscale’s ETHE
  • What’s Next for BTC After German Government Exits Bitcoin and Mt. Gox Giveaways Starting This Week

Hosts:

Guest:

  • Jack PlattsCo-Founder and Managing Partner of Hypersphere Ventures

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