Markets
Bitcoin bull run far from over
Bitcoin’s correlation with macro factors remains a hot topic as global monetary policies and the asset’s price have fallen over the past month
Token Bay Capital founder and managing partner Lucy Gazmararian said in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday morning that Bitcoin (BTC) can evolve in conjunction with the stock market.
The trend appears more evident as digital assets engage with traditional finance, Gazmararian noted. Analysts have marked a correlation between BTC and the macroeconomy due to geopolitical uncertainty and global monetary policies such as rate increases or cuts employed by the US Federal Reserve.
The reverse may also be the case in some scenarios, as investors have historically treated Bitcoin as a “risky” asset and a hedge against inflation. Gazmararian he said correlations are sometimes disrupted as BTC fundamentally differs from other asset classes such as bonds and stocks.
Bitcoin Top Expected by Late 2025
Despite BTC’s 9% drop in the last 30 days and concerns about inflation in the US, the founder of Token Bay Capital believes that the Bitcoin the bull run is only halfway over at most. Gazmararian pointed to “four-year expansion declines” seen in crypto markets. In other words, the continuous market retraction occurred in previous cycles, mainly after the halving.
“The 10%, 15% and 30% declines are really in line with previous cycles,” Gazmararian said. Data from BiTBO and TradingView showed drops of up to 40% after Bitcoin quadrennial code changefollowed by parabolic runs to new highs.
According to the charts, BTC never returned to pre-halving prices after completing the transition. The managing partner at Token Bay Capital predicted that history could repeat itself, and if this pattern comes to fruition, markets could see Bitcoin top in late 2025.
Pre-halving and post-halving BTC data | Source: BiTBO
On the other hand, Gazmararian surmised that BTC’s continued bull run could be called into question if the asset’s value drops by more than 50% in the coming months. A 50% price drop would drop Bitcoin below $32,000 at current levels.
According to IntoTheBlock, over 84% of long-term BTC holders are in profit, but 71% of short-term buyers are either “out of the money” or at a loss. Investors in the latter category acquired the cryptocurrency between $52,490.68 and $71,050. This means that aggressive dips could mean massive losses for many buyers.
BTC Investor Financial Data | Source: Inside the block