Connect with us

Markets

Crypto Markets Have Donald Trump as 58% Favorite

FinCrypt Staff

Published

on

Crypto Markets Have Donald Trump as 58% Favorite

The first presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will take place in Atlanta this Thursday – a sign that the 2024 election is quickly approaching. To get a better idea of ​​how the crypto crowd thinks this will play out, I paid a visit to Polymarket, where bettors can bet stablecoins on election results and just about anything else. What I discovered was a surprise.

O odds as of Monday night they give Trump a 59% chance of winning and Biden just 34%. In practice, this means that betting $100 on the former president would yield $169, while betting on the current president offers a payout of $294. Setting aside any partisan feelings, the odds seemed unusual to me, given that recent researches point to a small advantage for Trump, including in decisive states, but almost all are within the margin of error. So why do the betting odds reflect a landslide Trump victory?

I can think of two explanations. The first is that Polymarket detected a trend that researchers did not detect. This is entirely possible, given that polls have been notoriously wrong in recent elections, as it has become more difficult to contact voters in the post-landline era, and as respondents have become more inclined to lie or troll pollsters. However, prediction markets like Polymarket are considered high signal as people have an economic interest in the outcomes they express.

The other explanation is that Polymarket is wrong. This also seems possible given that the crypto sector as a whole appears to favor Trump, meaning the sample – as reflected by voting probabilities – is skewed and unrepresentative of the average voter. Put another way, many of the bettors on Polymarket may be demonstrating a cognitive bias that comes from living in an echo chamber. All of this could also be reinforced by the fact that crypto is emerging as the biggest “Trump Trade”—a term that describes investors looking to capitalize on asset sectors that are poised to benefit if the former president is reelected.

What do you think? I think any of the above explanations are plausible, and I’d also like to point out that it’s still only June and that many things could happen to shake up the race – including Thursday’s debate, which will, to the dismay of many Americans, put a debate of 78- an 81 year old person versus an 81 year old person. Lastly, if you’re curious about Polymarket, check out this intriguing DL News profile of one of the site’s most prolific bettors.

Jeff John Roberts
jeff.roberts@fortune.com
@jeffjohnroberts

DECENTRALIZED NEWS

Hedge funds that bought FTX bankruptcy filings are poised to make a fortune, but they also face sellers looking to renege or renegotiate the filings. (WSJ)

Single commercial star Kanav Kariyawho directed Skip crypto, is leaving the company after two years of controversy. (Bloomberg)

Coin base may be facing regulatory action due to its decision to adopt a crypto accounting practice before it has been officially approved. (Market observation)

Bitcoin briefly dipped below $60,000 on Monday as the crypto market turns bearish amid high interest rates and ETF outflows. (CNBC)

Altcoins like Avalanche and Pyth are being hit especially hard in the crisis as VCs move to dump newly unlocked tokens. (Bloomberg)

MEME OF THE MOMENT

Serious 2022 Vibes:

This is the web version of Fortune Crypto, a daily newsletter about the coins, companies and people shaping the world of crypto. Sign up for free.

Source

We are the editorial team of FinCrypt, where seriousness meets clarity in cryptocurrency analysis. With a robust team of finance and blockchain technology experts, we are dedicated to meticulously exploring complex crypto markets with detailed assessments and an unbiased approach. Our mission is to democratize access to knowledge of emerging financial technologies, ensuring they are understandable and accessible to all. In every article on FinCrypt, we strive to provide content that not only educates, but also empowers our readers, facilitating their integration into the financial digital age.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Información básica sobre protección de datos Ver más

  • Responsable: Miguel Mamador.
  • Finalidad:  Moderar los comentarios.
  • Legitimación:  Por consentimiento del interesado.
  • Destinatarios y encargados de tratamiento:  No se ceden o comunican datos a terceros para prestar este servicio. El Titular ha contratado los servicios de alojamiento web a Banahosting que actúa como encargado de tratamiento.
  • Derechos: Acceder, rectificar y suprimir los datos.
  • Información Adicional: Puede consultar la información detallada en la Política de Privacidad.

Markets

Crypto Markets Rebound as Spot Bitcoin ETFs Attract Massive Inflows

FinCrypt Staff

Published

on

Crypto Markets Rebound Ahead of Early Ethereum ETF Approval

This week saw $722 million worth of Bitcoin spot ETF inflows, including the largest daily inflow in a month.

Cryptocurrency markets rallied on Wednesday, driven by inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is up 3% over the past 24 hours to last change hands at $65,200, according to CoinGecko. Ethereum (ETH) is up 2% and is trading at $3,471. Solana (SUN) and Polkadot (POINT) increased by 4%.

Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $422 million in daily inflows on Tuesday, the highest in the past 30 days, according to Far side data, . The all-time record for a single day was $1.05 billion on March 12.

Among Tuesday’s top contributors, BlackRock’s IBIT led with $260 million in inflows, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with $61 million. This week has already seen more than $722 million in inflows.

Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, Worldcoin (WLD) led with a 28% increase, followed by Helium (HNT) with 20% and Lido DAO (LDO) with 15%.

Worldcoin, a decentralized identity project led by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, announced is extending the lockups for early investors and team members. This means that tokens will be gradually released through 2029, instead of the original 2027 plan. Token unlocks are generally seen as a negative because they increase supply and early investors can sell their tokens for profit.

Meanwhile, XRP, the token of the XRP Ledger network, jumped 8% after the CME and CF benchmarks introduced new indices and reference rates for XRP.

U.S. stocks faced a downturn on Wednesday. The S&P 500 fell 1%, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average both fell 2%.

Source

Continue Reading

Markets

Altcoins on the cusp of a major breakout – WLD, AR, and INJ prices could surge by 20% in the coming days

FinCrypt Staff

Published

on

Altcoins on the cusp of a major breakout – WLD, AR, and INJ prices could surge by 20% in the coming days

Crypto markets appear to have been taken over by the bulls as major tokens have surged above their crucial resistance zone. Bitcoin surged above $65,000 while Ethereum was above $3,500, and XRP, which had remained passive for quite some time, surged over 40% in the past few days to hit $0.6. The uptrend has been captured in most altcoins, with Worldcoin (WLD), Arweave (AR), and Injective (INJ) leading the rally. Here’s what to expect for these tokens in the coming days.

Worldcoin (WLD) Price Analysis

O Worldcoin Price has been trading inside a descending wedge since it marked a new ATH near $12 in the final days of Q1 2024. The recent price action helped the price break out of the upper resistance of the wedge, breaking above the crucial resistance zone between $2.21 and $2.39. Market sentiments have changed, but technicals suggest that the bulls may remain passive for a while, which could offer some room for a bearish pullback.

The price broke out of the wedge with a significant increase in volume, but the current volume suggests that the bulls have taken a step back. Meanwhile, the RSI is about to reach the upper boundary, which could attract bearish forces. Additionally, the DMI has undergone a bullish crossover, but the decline in the ADX suggests that the rally may remain consolidated above the gains. Therefore, the WLD price is expected to maintain a horizontal consolidation between $3 and $3.3 and trigger a fresh rally to $4.4 during the next bullish rally.

Arweave (AR) Price Analysis

Arweave formed a strong base around $25, which helped the rally trigger a recovery during the bearish attack. Mt. Gox and German terror forced the price to fall below $20. However, the recent price action has brought the altcoin within the bullish range and raised expectations of maintaining a decent uptrend for a few more days.

AR price has hit one of the major resistances around $30 to $31.5, which could act as a strong base once overcome. The buying volume is slowly increasing, which could keep the bullish hopes for the rally high. Moreover, the supertrend has just flashed a buy signal, indicating a clean reversal of the trend. Therefore, AR price seems primed to maintain a healthy uptrend and rally above $40. However, if the bulls maintain a similar trend, making new highs above $50 may not be a tedious task for the bulls.

Price Analysis of Injective (INJ)

Injective price has been showing sharp strength since the beginning of the year and hence, the recent turnaround is expected to revive a good uptrend going forward. The bears engulfed the rally to a large extent, but the recent price action suggests that the bulls have regained their dominance. Therefore, INJ price is expected to maintain a strong uptrend with a bearish interference on the way down.

INJ price has surged above the lower support zone and has registered consecutive bullish candles. Although the volume is below the required levels, the OBV is maintaining a sharp uptrend. Furthermore, the Ichimoku cloud lead span B is heading towards the lead span A and a healthy crossover indicates the start of a new uptrend. However, INJ price may be out of the bears’ reach once it secures the resistance zone between $30.77 and $32.12, which seems to be on the horizon.

Source

Continue Reading

Markets

Ethereum at $3.5K, Exchange Supply Hits 34-Month High

FinCrypt Staff

Published

on

Ethereum at $3.5K, Exchange Supply Hits 34-Month High

Ethereum (ETH) supply on exchanges has hit a 34-month high as the asset’s price surpassed the $3,500 mark.

ETH has risen 2.3% over the past 24 hours and is trading at $3,490 at the time of writing. The second-largest cryptocurrency — with a market cap of $419 billion — briefly touched an intraday high of $3,517 earlier today.

ETH Price, Whale Activity, RSI, and Exchange Supply – July 17 | Source: Santiment

Ethereum’s daily trading volume also increased by 7.6% to reach $19.8 billion.

According to data provided by Santiment, the supply of Ethereum on exchanges has reached $19.52 million ETH. This level was last seen in September 2021, when the asset was trading around the same price.

On the other hand, data from the market intelligence platform shows that the number of whale transactions has fallen by 12% in the last day — falling from 8,730 to 7,629 unique transactions per day.

The move shows that the supply of Ethereum on exchanges has been increasing with small deposits rather than large transactions from whales.

Additionally, the ETH Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering at the 60-mark, per Santiment. The indicator shows that Ethereum is slightly overbought at this price point, but it may not be in a critical position due to its large market cap.

One of the main drivers of Ethereum price increase is ETH spot expectations ETFs in the US Investment products are scheduled to start trading on July 23rd.

Source

Continue Reading

Markets

Bits + Beeps: How to Play the ‘Trump Trade’ in Cryptocurrencies After the Assassination Attempt

FinCrypt Staff

Published

on

Bits + Bips: How to Play the ‘Trump Trade’ in Crypto After the Assassination Attempt

Also, how much will the Fed cut rates (and when)? What will be the inflows into ETH ETFs? And what is the near future for Bitcoin?

Posted on July 17, 2024 at 12:00 PM EST.

Listen to the episode at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Capsules, Source, Podcast Addict, Pocket molds, Amazon Musicor on your favorite podcast platform.

In this episode of Bits + Bips, hosts James Seyffart, Alex Kruger and Joe McCann, joined by guest Jack Platts, dive into the market reaction to the recent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, analyzing how this event will influence the 2024 US presidential election and the cryptocurrency markets.

They also cover potential rate cuts: Could there be a cut in July? How big could the September rate cut be? Could the decision be influenced by the upcoming election?

They also give their predictions on what percentage of BTC ETF inflows the ETH ETFs will reach, and James talks about what he expects for Grayscale’s ETHE (hint: his outlook would be positive for ETH).

Finally, they delve into what’s next for Bitcoin as the German government runs out of BTC and Mt. Gox distributions begin. Just now?

Program Highlights:

  • Whether Trump’s shooting decided the election and whether the event caused a “flight to safety”
  • How election markets are becoming a place to watch election probabilities and whether cryptocurrencies “lean right”
  • Whether rate cuts will occur in July or September and by how much they will cut: 25 bps or 50 bps
  • How Joe sees the relationship between global liquidity cycles, rate cuts, and the potential rise of Bitcoin
  • What are the new updates about Ethereum ETFs and their expected launch?
  • Why Solana Hasn’t Performed Significantly Better Since Trump News
  • What Market Breadth Indicates About the Current Market Rally and the Impact of Rates on Small Caps
  • Everyone’s predictions on ETH ETF inflows and how much outflow we’ll see on Grayscale’s ETHE
  • What’s Next for BTC After German Government Exits Bitcoin and Mt. Gox Giveaways Starting This Week

Hosts:

Guest:

  • Jack PlattsCo-Founder and Managing Partner of Hypersphere Ventures

Source

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2024 FINCRYPT.INFO. All rights reserved. This website provides educational content and highlights that investing involves risks. It is essential to conduct thorough research before investing and to be prepared to assume potential losses. Be sure to fully understand the risks involved before making investment decisions. Important: We do not provide financial or investment advice. All content is presented for educational purposes only.