Markets
Crypto traders bet big on Trump win, odds rise to 72% after shooting
The attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump during a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday has boosted his chances of winning the election. presidential electionaccording to cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket.
A recent report Fortune found that while traditional polls may paint a different picture, Polymarket and PredictIt are seeing a notable shift in odds following the incident.
Cryptocurrency industry rebounds as Trump’s chances increase
Prediction or betting markets provide a platform where traders exchange contracts based on uncertain future events. The prices of these contracts reflect the collective forecast of market participants, effectively serving as probabilities.
In this sense, Polymarket prediction market shows a significant increase in Trump’s chances after the assassination attempt, jumping from 60% to 72%. On the other hand, Biden’s chances increased slightly to 18%, while Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances plummeted from 13% to 5%.
PredictIt, another prediction market, also reflects the shift, with Trump’s odds rising to 67% and Biden’s falling to 26%.
The cryptocurrency market’s reaction to the incident was notable, particularly the prices of the largest tokens, which have recently recovered. Fortune’s report suggests that Trump’s reaffirmation that he would be the “crypto president” if re-elected led to the recent race in the cryptocurrency market.
Signs of recovery
Bitcoin, for example, rose 6%, surpassing $63,000 for the first time in three weeks, after hitting a low of $53,500 on July 5 for the first time since February. Currently, the largest cryptocurrency in the market records gains of 6% and more than 13% in the 24-hour and seven-hour period.
Cryptocurrency-related stocks such as Coinbase Global and cryptocurrency mining companies Marathon Digital Holdings and Riot Platforms also rose with gains of 10%, 7% and 6%, respectively.
Meme coins created in a parody of the former president has also seen a notable surge in the MAGA example, rising more than 45% in the seven-day period and 7% in the last 24 hours, leading to a current trading price of $8.43, not seen since late June.
However, the token is seeing a 66% drop in trading volume and a 53% decline from its all-time high of $17.5 recorded in June 2024, according to CoinGecko data.
Fortune also reported that Saturday’s shooting had an indirect impact on Trump’s business ventures. Shares of Trump Media and Technology, the parent company of Truth Social, jumped 47% after the incident, potentially adding $1.8 billion to Trump’s total wealth, suggesting increased investor interest in Trump-owned businesses following the assassination attempt.
Featured image from Toledo Blade, chart from TradingView.com