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Here’s how much just $100 in Bitcoin will be worth if Cathie Wood’s BTC prediction is correct
Here’s how much just $100 in Bitcoin will be worth if Cathie Wood’s BTC prediction is correct
Founded in 2014, ARK Invest has quickly become one of the largest asset management firms globally. Led by Cathie Wood, the company offers a variety of investment products and services, with a strong focus on innovation and technology. In early 2024, the firm partnered with 21Shares to launch a Bitcoin spot ETF (ARKB). The ETF and many others have been highly successful, attracting more than $3.2 billion in AUM.
After the ETF’s launch, Cathie Wood received a lot of attention for her predictions about the future price of Bitcoin.
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“With this institutional green light that the SEC [Security and Exchange Commission] provided, even though he did, the analysis we did is that if institutional investors were to allocate just over 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin, as we think they will do over time, that alone would add $2.3 million to the projection I just gave you,” Wood noted at an investor conference in New York.
The new forecast is higher than at the beginning of the year. In January 2024, Wood stated that Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million 2030 after “the likelihood of a bull case occurring has increased with this SEC approval. This is the green light.” Before endorsing spot ETFs, Wood predicted that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030.
Wood’s investment thesis on Bitcoin is based on significant levels of institutional adoption. While it is plausible that if institutional investors allocated 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin, the price could reach $3.8 million, this is unlikely to happen by 2030. While institutional adoption has increased significantly in 2024, unprecedented changes in the institutional landscape would be needed for this to happen.
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The 2030 forecast also takes into account the next Bitcoin halving, expected in 2028. Historically, Bitcoin halvings precede higher highs followed by higher lows. If this pattern continues into 2030, the price could peak around 2029 or 2030, potentially aligning with Wood’s price prediction.
If Wood is right and Bitcoin reaches $3.8 million, a $100 investment in Bitcoin today would be worth $5,510 in 2030. That translates to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 95%.
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While the forecast is bullish, Bitcoin’s 14-year CAGR is well above 220%, so it’s not completely out of the question. However, as Wood noted, this would likely require substantial institutional investment.
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