Markets
Kamala Goes Biden: Crypto Markets Soar for Vice President as Democratic Nominee
Will Biden drop out? Crypto bettors are betting millions on the possibility of US President Joe Biden stepping aside amid concerns over his candidacy, with the leading cryptocurrency prediction market showing a 73% chance of him dropping out of the 2024 election. And Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead in a head-to-head matchup over the expected Democratic nominee.
This follows a sustained call for Biden to resign, which has only grown since last Thursday’s problematic debate. New York Times reported early Wednesday that Biden told an ally he was considering whether to drop out of the race, though a White House official called the story false. Even so, the report immediately prompted a flurry of activity in the booming prediction market, Polymarket.
The trading platform saw the odds of Biden resigning rise steadily overnight and by Wednesday morning had spiked more than 15 points between 7:30 and 8:30 a.m., from 60% to 76%, shortly after the release of the Times chunk.
The number is now 73%. On Tuesday, the president’s chances of resigning were estimated at just 45%, among a group of users betting more than $10 million in total.
For the first time since prediction market polls began, Kamala Harris now has a 43% chance of winning. becoming the Democratic candidateaccording to bookmakers, beating incumbent Biden with a 34% chance at the time of writing.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s chances rose slightly from 3% to 7%, trailing a 13% chance for “Other (Incl. Whitmer)” — referring to Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer — and 8% betting on former first lady Michelle Obama to be chosen.
This is an impressive fluctuation for Harris since Tuesday night, when, as Decipher reported, her chances of becoming the nominee have only increased to 31%, well behind Biden’s 58% at the time. The switch in positions indicates not only a continued lack of confidence that Biden will make a splash on the campaign trail this fall, but also a reality check among the crypto community and prediction market users that VP Harris will be the realistic choice to step into the spotlight.
Elsewhere in the cryptosphere, the meme coin cipher for VP, Solana KAMA token, continued to rally in the early hours of Wednesday as well. Up from a trading high of $0.0096 last night, the coin spiked to $0.0185 following the reported spat within the Biden campaign.
The coin has stabilized at $0.015, while the coin’s market cap has grown to $16 million at the time of writing, indicating user confidence in the vice president’s chances of taking over the Democratic Party in the upcoming election.
After a disastrous week for the 80-year-old US president, the Times The report suggests Biden is listening to concerns about his ability to continue. His campaign reportedly sees an interview with George Stefanopoulos and two rallies this weekend as crucial steps toward rebuilding trust among a wavering public.
However, public outrage — driven in part by dramatic shifts in research into cryptocurrency trading and prediction markets — could force the president to act sooner than he expected.
Edited by Andre Hayward
The opinions and views expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment or other advice.