Markets
Market Leadership in Flux, Bitcoin in Trouble: Market Conclusions
Yahoo Finance Jared Blikre joins Asking for a Trend to break down his key takeaways from the trading day.
Blikre explains that stock market leadership is in flux. While the technology sector and megacaps are leading the way, energy has risen as crude oil is above $80 per barrel. The financial and commodity sectors are also rising, shaking up the market rating.
Blikre also notes that July is historically a positive month for the Nasdaq (^IXIC). The first 10 days of the month usually have the best performance in the index, and this July could not be any different.
Finally, bitcoin (BTC-USD) is facing its cliff Mt. Gox. The former cryptocurrency exchange is set to distribute 140,000 as part of its bankruptcy settlement.
For more expert insights and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Asking for a Trend.
This post was written by Melanie Riehl
Video transcript
The NASDAQ 500 stock fell three days today as NVIDIA shares rallied.
Now, I’m here to tell you more about the train of the day.
The bottom line is that Yahoo funds its own Jared Bli Jared.
Thank you, Joshua.
Take away the number one leadership in the stock market.
It’s in flux now.
We saw the NASDAQ and the Dow acting in a transversal way.
Uh, but we’ve seen a trend change over the last few days, which itself has reversed today.
So let me explain everything here.
Here’s the sector action for what we saw today.
Technology and communication services which are meta, alphabet and XL C. Those were the number ones, that’s the mega cap trade that’s doing really well.
We know that in the last few years, but in the last seven days, we’ve seen some other sectors really rise to the forefront.
And here, over the seven days, we see energy, crude oil above $80 per barrel.
There is XL C in the area again.
We are still in the mix, but we have finances and basic products.
So a different mix on top.
And here we have the real estate sector, which fell 1.8%, without giving much thought to it.
Uh, but overall it’s kind of a change in leadership and we can see that with software now, even the software is behind the scenes, you’re even seeing the other sectors and subsectors.
Jared.
Yes.
And I think the big lesson of software is software.
You know, people think of technology as a monolith, but you have software and chip stocks, you also have other things, but software is not doing well.
But I want to show you this graph here.
This is an intraday chart that looks very similar to the five-year chart. It’s just a coincidence, but now we have software that is forming a cup and a handle.
The story continues
This is a handle that has not yet broken upwards.
But if and when it does happen, all the right levels to watch.
Second point.
Yes.
Well, the second point has to do with July, all of that.
We talked about this last week.
So I took this graph and one more.
This is the new graphic.
It’s July, going back just 20 years on the NASDAQ.
So each of them is July.
Just.
What you can see is that 10 of the last 11 years have been positive and that is incredible.
So it makes you wonder: will we be pro-profit?
Of all this in July.
Well guess what, um, these are the first 10 days of the last 10 days of each month and what we’re showing is a chart that we saw last week.
July here, the first 10 days of July, the best of the year.
So we could see, you know, another big pop in July, let’s say Jared June, let’s say we sail in July.
Right?
Does this change the way you think about what might lie ahead?
Sorry, scroll down to July, you know the changing picture of seasonality is kind of painting here.
Well, this is interesting because today we saw a resumption of this mega cap trade.
I think if we saw some outsized returns in the following days until the end of the month, it would slow down.
So you could think of this as advancing some of that demand.
So maybe July doesn’t need to happen if we end June with a bank.
But you know, if we go sideways over the next few days, I’d still look for that July pop.
All good.
Takeout, Jared Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is facing the cliff of Mount Gox.
And for those of you who remember 10 years ago in Bitcoin, Mount Gox was the biggest cryptocurrency exchange, it did 70% of all global volumes and it crashed, it actually got hacked, they lost somewhere around 750,000 Bitcoins.
He guesses?
There are 100,000 and 40,000 that are there, they have to be distributed by an administrator in Japan because that’s where the company was based.
Once 100 and 40,000 Bitcoins $9 billion.
If they all hit the market at the same time, you could imagine the deluge of sales that would happen there.
They are worried about selling pressure.
Yes.
Uh Turn up the technicals, give me Jared, pull out Bitcoin when the charts tell you now.
Now we’re speaking my language here.
Here it is, here is Bitcoin.
You can see that it is down 4.6% from trilling.
Seven days, up 4.5% today.
You know, it was kind of difficult the last few years, but it recovered.
There’s also Monk Cliff in Germany, which was selling some Bitcoins that had been confiscated there, you know, in cryptocurrencies, you never know the whole story, do you?
But here’s the five-year chart and here’s what I want to show you.
Here’s another cup, here’s another handle.
This is a higher level, higher than this.
But we are still just signaling here waiting to break until this range is broken.
Does not mean anything.
Alright, that’s what to watch Jared.
Thank you my friend.