Markets
Markets expected to get short-term boost after Trump survives shooting
Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the Butler Farm Show in Butler, Pennsylvania, U.S., July 13, 2024.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Cryptocurrency markets have also recovered – with bitcoin rising as much as 5% on Monday to surpass $63,000 — on hopes of a more positive outlook for the digital asset under a Trump presidency.
“Saturday’s events, if anything, strengthen the case for President Donald Trump winning the election in November. I think that’s what the markets reacted to,” Casey said.
Brian Gardner, chief Washington policy strategist at Stifel, agreed, predicting a risk-on rally to kick off the new trading week.
“We believe investors will agree with our assessment that the assassination attempt on Donald Trump increases his chances of winning the presidential election,” he wrote in a Sunday note.
Polls showed Trump maintained his lead over the president Joe Biden a day after the shooting at a Republican rally in Pennsylvania. Betting odds, however, have increased.
It follows already declining support for Biden, even among his Democratic voter base, amid concerns about his cognitive abilities. Casey said the weekend’s events also provide a reprieve for Biden, who has been under pressure to step down, and all but guarantees his candidacy in November.
Risk consultancy BMI, part of Fitch Solutions, said in a note to CNBC that Trump’s chances of winning the election have increased significantly, which “could be positive ahead of the election as it reduces electoral uncertainty.” But it added that any increase would likely fade.
Guillaume Menuet, head of investment strategy and economics for EMEA at Citi Global Wealth, agrees. He told CNBC that the weekend’s events would likely buoy markets for “a few days” before investors’ attention returned to the real economy.
“These events, as unfortunate as they are in terms of political change, do not really change the direction of global markets and the global economy,” he said Monday.
Indeed, with more than three months to go until the Nov. 5 election, Casey said it was too early to make a prediction about the long-term market impact, with a number of political events likely to increase volatility in the coming months.
One person died and two others were seriously injured during the accident. Saturday attackprompting both Trump and Biden to call for calm and unity amid concerns about growing political divisions and possible future violence.
“It’s probably too far between now and November to be especially bearish or bullish. What we’ve seen over the last month or so, and what we’re likely to see over the next few months, is frankly point-blank volatility, period,” Casey said.
Veteran investor David Roche, president of Quantum Strategy, said in a note on Sunday that a Trump presidency — which is now his prediction — would be bad news for markets given his protectionist geopolitical stance.
“Tariffs would hit US inflation and growth. US Fed cuts would end. That would mean the end of the bull market,” he said.
Meanwhile, Nomura’s Gareth Nicholson, in a note to CNBC, said a Trump presidency would pose an overall “negative risk factor” for Asian stocks, and Goldman Sachs said in a note on Friday that European markets would also be hit by the new uncertainty of trade policy under the new Trump administration.