Markets
Mt. Gox Bitcoin Distributions Won’t Be Too Bad and Ethereum ETF Could Surprise: Galaxy Research
Cryptocurrency Analyst Alex Espinho in Galactic Research predicts less market impact than expected near Mt. Bitcoin BTC/USD Distributions While Remaining Cautiously Optimistic About Ethereum ETH/USD ETF inflows.
What happened: In a recent Unchained podcast episodeGalaxy’s head of research Alex Thorn predicted that only around 64,000 Bitcoins out of the total 142,000 BTC will be distributed to individual creditors, with it unlikely that much of it will be sold immediately.
“I don’t think the Gox sale could really be that big,” Thorn said, suggesting the market impact could be minimal. He noted that many Mt. Gox creditors are likely long-term Bitcoin holders who have resisted selling their claims for years.
“If we use some naive assumptions, you know, if we say 10% of the 65,000 coins were sold, that’s still 6,500 coins that could be dumped into the market,” Thorn said, emphasizing that while there will be some sales, it’s likely to be smaller than many expect.
About Ethereum ETFThorn projected potential inflows of about $1 billion per month in the first five months, for a total of $5 billion. This estimate is based on a comparison of several Bitcoin and Ethereum exposure products. “I think a lot of people are bearish on Bitcoin ETF inflows,” he noted.
However, he suggested that Ethereum ETFs could perform better than expected, drawing parallels to the successful launch of Bitcoin ETFs.
Read too: Why Bitcoin Will Rise Again in July
Why this matters: The analysis challenges prevailing market concerns about significant selling pressure from Mt. Gox distributions. It also provides a more optimistic outlook on Ethereum ETF demand than some other analysts have suggested.
Thorn sees the US Election and potential regulatory changes as the main catalysts for cryptocurrency markets until the end of the year. “It’s very difficult to have a strong directional view for me in this market between now and November,” he said.
He also noted the recent Solana ETF filing by VanEck, but expressed skepticism about its chances of approval in the near term given the SEC’s current stance on Solana as a potential security. “This is very unlikely to be approved,” concluded Thorn.
What is the next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s next event Future of digital assets event on November 19th.
Read next: Gox Will Start Reimbursing Bitcoin in July: Is $9 Billion Selling Pressure Coming?
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