Markets
Trump widens lead with Biden (on Polymarket and PredictIt) after courting crypto vote
This week in prediction markets:
Adopting a strong pro-crypto stance may have strengthened Donald Trump’s lead over current President Joe Biden – at least if you follow the prediction markets.
Last week, Trump promised to commute the sentence from Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht – a figure near and dear to many in the crypto community – and promised to make the U.S. leader in the digital asset industry. It is a markedly more solicitous stance than that adopted by the Biden administration.
In the same period, Biden “yes” shares on PredictIt, an election betting platform popular with retail traders that settles trades in dollars, fell from 46 cents to 44 cents. Each share pays $1 if Biden is reelected and nothing if he loses. Effectively, the price of 44 cents means that the market sees a 44% probability of him being re-elected.
Crypto-based Polymarket, which technically prohibits US residents from using its service, showed a similar shift in odds.
The polls did not reveal such a dramatic difference between the two candidates, nor such a dramatic change in the last week. Trump’s lead in the polls rose just 80 basis points to 1.7%, according to FiveThirtyEight Averages. Proponents of prediction markets argue that they can be a more reliable indicator of sentiment and a forecasting tool because, unlike people answering questions on the phone, bettors are involved in the game.
Markets were also interested in North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum as a possible Trump running mate.
At PolymercadoBurgum shares are up three percentage points, currently trading up 18%, or 18 cents, while on PredictItthey fell slightly, trading at 15 cents.
On both platforms, Burgum trails Tim Scott, who maintains a 23% lead on PredictIt and 27% on Polymarket, well ahead of established Republicans like Marco Rubio, with 10% on Polymarket, or Nikki Haley, with 4%. .
A mysterious dispute arose at Polymarket regarding contract resolution over whether the US Securities and Exchange Commission would bless ether ETFs. Bettors are conflicted about whether “approval” means just the 19b-4 forms or also the S-1 filings.
But as baseball legend Yogi Berra said, it’s not over until it’s over.
While the SEC has approved Forms 19b-4 for ETFs, it must still approve S-1 filings before trading can begin, said James Seyffart, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. told CoinDesk.
“ETFs are not considered ‘approved’ until the relevant registration form (such as S-1, N-1A or N-2) and 19b-4 filing have been signed by the SEC,” Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research, posted in X (formerly Twitter).
Despite these bureaucratic issues, the Polymarket contract, which received more than 13 million dollars in bets, still resolved “yes”, meaning that the “oracle” or arbitrator of the contract decided that the issue was resolved.
And that led to some unlikely cash.
A user using the identifier Papellisswho bought near the bottom of the market at 7 cents, turned just over $300 into $4,358 for a return of 1,329%.
Meanwhile, the largest holder of “Yes” shares in the contract, won’t fool merecorded a 61% return, taking his bet from just over $10,000 to a value of $16,902 when the contract was closed.