Markets
US CPI and Core CPI Estimates by Wall Street Signal Crypto Market Recovery
Crypto Traders Await Latest Tips US Consumer Price Index (IPC) and Main CPI data to determine whether it is time for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high or whether concerns still prevail. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release May CPI inflation data hours before the US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday, June 12th. Data is crucial after an above-expected result US employment data last week, which reduced bets on Fed rate cuts.
Wall Street giants including JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, UBS, Nomura, RBC and Barclays expect the CPI to be in line at 3.4%. Meanwhile, BNP Paribas, TD Bank and Wells Fargo expect CPI inflation to cool to 3.3%.
According to economists, the annual inflation measured by the CPI to stay in line with 3.4%, similar to last month. The monthly fee seen slowing down from 0.3% to 0.1%
last month. Also the Yearly Main CPI Inflation is expected to fall to 3.5%, from 3.6% last month, and monthly underlying inflation is expected to remain stable at 0.3%, following a large drop last month.
Estimates of inflation data from Wall Street and economists signal overall positive numbers and recovery sentiment in the market. US stock futures steadied today as investors braced for the CPI and FOMC double macro event. Meanwhile, China announced that its inflation rate fell below estimates.
Bitcoin Traders Predict Fed Rate Cuts in September
The banks predicted Fed Rate Cuts starting in September. A cooling of CPI inflation and PCE inflation to confirm September as an official Fed pivot. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell remains optimistic about the state of the US economy, still expecting three rate cuts despite of two indicated by Fed swaps.
The US dollar index (DXY) fell ahead of the CPI and Fed rate decision. It is moving around 105.22, likely falling below 105 after major macro events. CPI in line with market estimates could increase bets for a rate cut in September, potentially driving up the price of Bitcoin.
Additionally, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (US10A) trimmed gains this week amid positive market recovery sentiment, easing concerns raised following last week’s employment data. Bitcoin price moves in the opposite direction to US Treasury yields and traders expect further decline as monetary policy tightening eases.
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Bitcoin Price Recovery After CPI to Bring Crypto Market Recovery
Bitcoin tends to fall on the FOMC and CPI as the crypto market overreacts, which should reverse after these events. The BTC price is creating a healthy market structure in the longer term and a buying opportunity on the dip, analysts said. A formed inverse head and shoulders pattern
in the shorter period, which could bring a recovery in the broader crypto market as BTC rises.
Open interest is rising once again, reaching all-time highs, but has faced a rough patch due to macro events. Total BTC futures open interest stands at $35.47 billion, with new signs of buying below, as per Currency Currency data.
Options Market Data Points to a Recovery Above $67,500 today and overcome $69,000 on due date on Friday. Options traders bet that Bitcoin would reach highs of $75,000 and even $80,000 by the end of June. Traders are optimistic after this heavy macro week, according to Debt.
About that, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a $200 million outflow amid macro concerns. Fidelity, Bitwise, ARK 21Shares, VanEck and GBTC Bitcoin ETFs all saw outflows on Tuesday.
BTC Price is trading at US$67,265, down 0.57% in the last 24 hours. The support level is at US$66 thousand, a drop below this will nullify the bullish scenario in the short term. Additionally, trading volume has increased slightly over the past 24 hours, indicating an increase in interest among traders.
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