Markets
Will Current Bitcoin Options Expiration Cause Markets to Fall?
There are around 20,000 expiring Bitcoin options with a notional value of $1.35 billion. However, today’s expiry event is much smaller than in previous weeks, so the impact on the market will likely be minimal.
However, a major Bitcoin options expiration event will occur on June 28, with $6.7 billion worth of notional value derivatives expiring.
Bitcoin Options Expiration
Current BTC contracts have a put/call ratio of 0.49, meaning twice as many long (buy) contracts are expiring as there are short (sell) positions.
The maximum pain point is $68,500, slightly higher than current spot prices. This is the level at which most losses will occur.
Bulls are still dominating BTC derivatives with nearly $1 billion in open interest at the $100,000 strike price, according to for Deribit. The $75,000 and $80,000 strike prices also attracted a lot of OI, with $723 million and $807 million, respectively.
Crypto derivatives tool provider Greeks Live commented that despite the large macroeconomic data week in the United States, “the crypto market underperformed, conventional currencies as a whole fell, and altcoins fell further.”
“There are fewer hot spots in the market recently and the market is relatively calm.”
June 14 Options Delivery Data
20,000 BTC options expired with a put ratio of 0.49, a maximum pain point of $68,500, and a notional value of $1.35 billion.
200,000 ETH options expired with a Put Call ratio of 0.36, a maximum value of $3,600, and a notional value of $710 million.… pic.twitter.com/42ruZLLtqc-Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) June 14, 2024
It added that short-term implied volatility for Bitcoin and Ethereum has fallen below 50% and 60%, respectively. However, Ethereum ETF news later this month could impact market sentiment and volatility.
In addition to the current batch of Bitcoin options, 200,000 Ethereum options have expired with a 0.36 put/call, a maximum pain point of $3,600, and a notional value of $710 million.
Crypto Market Outlook
There has been little change in total market capitalization over the past 24 hours, remaining at $2.57 trillion.
However, the markets registered a retraction, with a drop of 7.5% in the last ten days.
Bitcoin was hovering around $67,000 in early trading Friday after falling to around $69,500 earlier this week. Analysts pointed out that profit-taking by Bitcoin miners contributed to the declines.
Charting guru Peter Brandt highlighted support levels should markets fall further.
Interest Graph – Bitcoin $BTC
Sometimes the most obvious interpretations of a chart work; most of the time, the graphics transform. But the most obvious is this:
Break 65 thousand, then mkt goes to 60 thousand
Breaking 60 thousand mkt goes to 48 thousand pic.twitter.com/JsXXVx2EhV-Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) June 13, 2024
Ethereum took a bigger hit this week, falling 7.7% to a four-week low of $3,434 on June 13, before recovering slightly to $3,515 at the time of writing.
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